**The Black Ball** stands as the clear market frontrunner for the 2027 Oscars Best International Feature Film, with its 74.5% implied probability reflecting overwhelming early momentum from its Cannes premiere, where directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi shared the Best Director prize. Spain’s September selection of the queer historical epic—featuring Penélope Cruz and Glenn Close, Netflix backing, and strong Toronto/Telluride buzz—has consolidated trader consensus around its awards trajectory, including potential Best Picture crossover. A broad field of other submissions clusters near 50% amid pre-shortlist uncertainty, while longshots like All of a Sudden, Possible Love, Coward, Fatherland, and Minotaur sit at single digits pending the December 15 shortlist and January 21 nominations. Festival circuit performance and guild signals will likely drive any near-term shifts before the March 2027 ceremony.