The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to Cook County and Connecticut semiautomatic rifle bans stands as the clearest catalyst for the 56% implied probability that the justices will invalidate AR-15-style restrictions. A conservative majority has repeatedly broadened Second Amendment protections under the Bruen historical-tradition test, and several justices have already flagged skepticism toward assault-weapons laws. Oral arguments are slated for the October 2026 term, with a decision expected by mid-2027. Recent lower-court rulings, including a 3rd Circuit decision striking down New Jersey’s ban, add momentum. Traders weigh these signals against the possibility of narrow holdings or unexpected alignments that could preserve some state authority.