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Gospodarka·Geopolityka Makro

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

icon for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Gospodarka·Geopolityka Makro

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

May 15

May 31

Jun 30

Jul 31

May 15

May 31

Jun 30

Jul 31

28% szansa
Polymarket

$6,464,655 Wol.

28% szansa
Polymarket

$6,464,655 Wol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran standoff have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at roughly 5% of pre-2026 levels through mid-May, driving the 72.5% market-implied odds that volumes will not normalize by June. Naval blockades, insurance cancellations, and recent ship seizures continue to deter full transits, while stalled cease-fire talks and Iran's planned toll mechanisms extend supply-chain disruptions affecting global oil and LNG flows. Trader consensus prices in the 4-6 month recovery timeline cited by major carriers, with limited upside from any near-term diplomatic breakthroughs before end-of-month resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$6,464,655
Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran standoff have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at roughly 5% of pre-2026 levels through mid-May, driving the 72.5% market-implied odds that volumes will not normalize by June. Naval blockades, insurance cancellations, and recent ship seizures continue to deter full transits, while stalled cease-fire talks and Iran's planned toll mechanisms extend supply-chain disruptions affecting global oil and LNG flows. Trader consensus prices in the 4-6 month recovery timeline cited by major carriers, with limited upside from any near-term diplomatic breakthroughs before end-of-month resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$6,465,048
Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 28% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 28¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 28% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" wygenerował $6.5 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 13, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" to 28% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 28% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.