Trump’s single documented instance of calling Nicki Minaj “so respected and so hot” at a July 2026 White House Rose Garden luncheon has not been repeated in the months since, anchoring the 95.8% market-implied probability on “No.” Their public alliance remains strong—Minaj has repeatedly declared herself the president’s “No. 1 fan,” attended administration events, and recently praised Trump and JD Vance as “handsome” and “dashing” at an October Turning Point USA gathering—yet Trump’s subsequent remarks have focused on her talent, common-sense alignment, and business acumen rather than repeating the specific compliment. With only weeks left in 2026 and no fresh White House or campaign appearances scheduled that would naturally prompt such language, traders view another instance as unlikely. A late-year surprise event, joint appearance, or offhand remark could still shift the outcome, though historical patterns suggest Trump’s public praise for allies tends to evolve rather than recur verbatim.