The Justice Department’s recent steps to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban president Raúl Castro for his alleged role as defense minister in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown have lifted trader expectations for charges. Multiple officials confirm prosecutors are advancing the case through a grand jury with an expected public announcement in Miami on May 20, aligning with broader Trump administration pressure on Havana that includes sanctions and diplomatic isolation. This development revives a long-standing exile community priority and fits patterns of using indictments against foreign officials to signal policy shifts without immediate enforcement challenges. While approval remains subject to grand jury review and potential last-minute adjustments, the timing and official sourcing have anchored the current market consensus around a slim majority likelihood.