**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to any U.S. nuclear explosive test through December 31, 2026, reflecting the continued moratorium in place since 1992. President Trump directed planning for resumed testing in late 2025 to match activities attributed to China and Russia, yet no full-yield detonation has occurred. Recent developments include a September 2026 non-nuclear chemical explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site aimed at refining detection of low-yield or decoupled blasts, alongside ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship programs that certify the arsenal without explosive testing. Bipartisan congressional resistance, including Senate oversight visits emphasizing non-explosive certification methods, has reinforced barriers. No major site preparations or legislative changes have emerged to shift timelines, keeping near-term odds subdued despite the earlier directive.