US policy toward Cuba under the second Trump administration has centered on economic isolation and regime pressure following the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Maduro and the cutoff of Venezuelan oil shipments. An executive order declared a national emergency, authorized tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, and reinforced Cuba’s state sponsor of terrorism designation, intensifying fuel shortages and economic strain on the island. Senior officials have publicly discussed military options, including airstrikes or limited strikes on military and intelligence targets, while naval assets such as the USS Nimitz carrier group and increased reconnaissance flights have been positioned in the Caribbean. These steps, alongside the May indictment of Raúl Castro, have elevated trader focus on whether sanctions alone will force concessions or prompt direct US military action before year-end deadlines. No kinetic operations have occurred to date.