Viktor Orbán lost Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in a landslide, ending his 16-year tenure as prime minister and shifting power to a government focused on anti-corruption reforms and EU fund recovery. Parliamentary committees and an asset-recovery office are examining alleged irregularities in state contracts, National Bank transactions, and EU procurement during the prior administration, while prosecutors pursue related probes into officials and linked entities. A June 2026 motion by a lawyer in one investigation referenced Orbán among potential suspects in an alleged unlawful detention case, yet no formal charges or detention have followed. With Orbán now in opposition and the new administration emphasizing institutional processes over rapid personal accountability, traders assign the 89.5% “No” probability to the short remaining timeframe and the emphasis on systemic reviews rather than immediate arrest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano11% szansa
$34,901 Wol.
$34,901 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% szansa
$34,901 Wol.
$34,901 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán lost Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in a landslide, ending his 16-year tenure as prime minister and shifting power to a government focused on anti-corruption reforms and EU fund recovery. Parliamentary committees and an asset-recovery office are examining alleged irregularities in state contracts, National Bank transactions, and EU procurement during the prior administration, while prosecutors pursue related probes into officials and linked entities. A June 2026 motion by a lawyer in one investigation referenced Orbán among potential suspects in an alleged unlawful detention case, yet no formal charges or detention have followed. With Orbán now in opposition and the new administration emphasizing institutional processes over rapid personal accountability, traders assign the 89.5% “No” probability to the short remaining timeframe and the emphasis on systemic reviews rather than immediate arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,901Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán lost Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in a landslide, ending his 16-year tenure as prime minister and shifting power to a government focused on anti-corruption reforms and EU fund recovery. Parliamentary committees and an asset-recovery office are examining alleged irregularities in state contracts, National Bank transactions, and EU procurement during the prior administration, while prosecutors pursue related probes into officials and linked entities. A June 2026 motion by a lawyer in one investigation referenced Orbán among potential suspects in an alleged unlawful detention case, yet no formal charges or detention have followed. With Orbán now in opposition and the new administration emphasizing institutional processes over rapid personal accountability, traders assign the 89.5% “No” probability to the short remaining timeframe and the emphasis on systemic reviews rather than immediate arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$34,901Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán lost Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in a landslide, ending his 16-year tenure as prime minister and shifting power to a government focused on anti-corruption reforms and EU fund recovery. Parliamentary committees and an asset-recovery office are examining alleged irregularities in state contracts, National Bank transactions, and EU procurement during the prior administration, while prosecutors pursue related probes into officials and linked entities. A June 2026 motion by a lawyer in one investigation referenced Orbán among potential suspects in an alleged unlawful detention case, yet no formal charges or detention have followed. With Orbán now in opposition and the new administration emphasizing institutional processes over rapid personal accountability, traders assign the 89.5% “No” probability to the short remaining timeframe and the emphasis on systemic reviews rather than immediate arrest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania