Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister after his Fidesz party’s defeat in the April 2026 elections, faces ongoing corruption probes and a June 2026 legal motion from a lawyer in the Ukrainian cash convoy case urging his detention over alleged unlawful detention and related offenses. New authorities under Prime Minister Péter Magyar have opened or advanced inquiries into procurement irregularities, EU fund misuse, and pandemic-era deals, yet no formal charges against Orbán have produced an arrest warrant. Hungary’s judicial processes, institutional protections for former officials, and the absence of immediate prosecutorial action sustain the 92.5% trader consensus that arrest will not occur by year-end, even as scheduled investigations continue.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano8% szansa
$33,674 Wol.
$33,674 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% szansa
$33,674 Wol.
$33,674 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister after his Fidesz party’s defeat in the April 2026 elections, faces ongoing corruption probes and a June 2026 legal motion from a lawyer in the Ukrainian cash convoy case urging his detention over alleged unlawful detention and related offenses. New authorities under Prime Minister Péter Magyar have opened or advanced inquiries into procurement irregularities, EU fund misuse, and pandemic-era deals, yet no formal charges against Orbán have produced an arrest warrant. Hungary’s judicial processes, institutional protections for former officials, and the absence of immediate prosecutorial action sustain the 92.5% trader consensus that arrest will not occur by year-end, even as scheduled investigations continue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$33,674Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister after his Fidesz party’s defeat in the April 2026 elections, faces ongoing corruption probes and a June 2026 legal motion from a lawyer in the Ukrainian cash convoy case urging his detention over alleged unlawful detention and related offenses. New authorities under Prime Minister Péter Magyar have opened or advanced inquiries into procurement irregularities, EU fund misuse, and pandemic-era deals, yet no formal charges against Orbán have produced an arrest warrant. Hungary’s judicial processes, institutional protections for former officials, and the absence of immediate prosecutorial action sustain the 92.5% trader consensus that arrest will not occur by year-end, even as scheduled investigations continue.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$33,674Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister after his Fidesz party’s defeat in the April 2026 elections, faces ongoing corruption probes and a June 2026 legal motion from a lawyer in the Ukrainian cash convoy case urging his detention over alleged unlawful detention and related offenses. New authorities under Prime Minister Péter Magyar have opened or advanced inquiries into procurement irregularities, EU fund misuse, and pandemic-era deals, yet no formal charges against Orbán have produced an arrest warrant. Hungary’s judicial processes, institutional protections for former officials, and the absence of immediate prosecutorial action sustain the 92.5% trader consensus that arrest will not occur by year-end, even as scheduled investigations continue.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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