The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through mid-August 2026 underpins the market's 97.5% implied probability on "No." USGS seismic monitoring shows background rates of smaller events without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns on major faults such as the San Andreas that would signal heightened risk. Historical recurrence intervals place great earthquakes on decadal rather than annual timescales, making a late-year event statistically uncommon. While sudden rupture on an under-monitored segment remains possible, current observational data and model consensus support the strong trader consensus that the annual threshold will not be crossed before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 1, 2027
3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through mid-August 2026 underpins the market's 97.5% implied probability on "No." USGS seismic monitoring shows background rates of smaller events without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns on major faults such as the San Andreas that would signal heightened risk. Historical recurrence intervals place great earthquakes on decadal rather than annual timescales, making a late-year event statistically uncommon. While sudden rupture on an under-monitored segment remains possible, current observational data and model consensus support the strong trader consensus that the annual threshold will not be crossed before December 31.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,181Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through mid-August 2026 underpins the market's 97.5% implied probability on "No." USGS seismic monitoring shows background rates of smaller events without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns on major faults such as the San Andreas that would signal heightened risk. Historical recurrence intervals place great earthquakes on decadal rather than annual timescales, making a late-year event statistically uncommon. While sudden rupture on an under-monitored segment remains possible, current observational data and model consensus support the strong trader consensus that the annual threshold will not be crossed before December 31.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Wolumen
$3,181Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake in California through mid-August 2026 underpins the market's 97.5% implied probability on "No." USGS seismic monitoring shows background rates of smaller events without foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns on major faults such as the San Andreas that would signal heightened risk. Historical recurrence intervals place great earthquakes on decadal rather than annual timescales, making a late-year event statistically uncommon. While sudden rupture on an under-monitored segment remains possible, current observational data and model consensus support the strong trader consensus that the annual threshold will not be crossed before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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