**Neymar's inclusion in Brazil's 26-man squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup under Carlo Ancelotti underpins the strong 89% implied probability on the "Yes" outcome.** Despite missing the June 13 group opener against Morocco with a grade 2 right calf injury sustained in mid-May while with Santos, recent MRI scans have shown steady progress within expected recovery timelines. The Brazilian Football Confederation and team medical staff report positive evolution, positioning the 34-year-old to rejoin full training within days and potentially feature in later group matches such as versus Haiti. Ancelotti has repeatedly affirmed no regrets over the selection, citing Neymar's leadership, experience, and value in a deep attacking unit alongside players like Vinícius Júnior. While Neymar has not featured for Brazil since 2023 and carries a well-documented injury history, the relatively short-term nature of this calf issue—combined with the tournament's extended format and Brazil's group-stage cushion—supports trader consensus that he will see minutes before elimination. Late scratches or setbacks remain possible in a high-stakes environment, but current developments point to a realistic path to participation.