Skip to main content
icon for Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
World·Kupyansk

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

icon for Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
World·Kupyansk

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

$1,969,676 Wol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,969,676 Wol.

Polymarket

June 30

$745,495 Wol.

<1%

December 31

$18,591 Wol.

13%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-unit advances around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast since late 2024, including pipeline incursions and probes into northern and western suburbs, but Ukrainian defenders have repeatedly cleared positions and restored control over key urban areas through counterattacks. Independent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Russian troops hold no consolidated ground inside the city proper, with activity limited to sporadic outskirts clashes and failed encirclement efforts near settlements such as Pishchane. Ukrainian forces reported net territorial gains across the front in 2026, including localized improvements east of Kupiansk, amid intensified drone and artillery interdiction. These battlefield realities underpin trader consensus that full capture remains improbable in the near term, with resolution hinging on verified consolidation of the entire city rather than partial claims.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.

Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Wolumen
$1,969,676
Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 27, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-unit advances around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast since late 2024, including pipeline incursions and probes into northern and western suburbs, but Ukrainian defenders have repeatedly cleared positions and restored control over key urban areas through counterattacks. Independent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Russian troops hold no consolidated ground inside the city proper, with activity limited to sporadic outskirts clashes and failed encirclement efforts near settlements such as Pishchane. Ukrainian forces reported net territorial gains across the front in 2026, including localized improvements east of Kupiansk, amid intensified drone and artillery interdiction. These battlefield realities underpin trader consensus that full capture remains improbable in the near term, with resolution hinging on verified consolidation of the entire city rather than partial claims.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.

Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Wolumen
$1,969,676
Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 27, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.

Często zadawane pytania

"Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 6 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "December 31" z 13%, za nim "June 30" z 0%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 13¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 13% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?" wygenerował $2 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Nov 4, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?", przeglądaj 6 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?" jest "December 31" z 13%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 13% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "June 30" z 0%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.