**Sneako (Nicolas Kenn De Balinthazy), the New York-born streamer and online personality of Haitian-Filipino descent, is a U.S. citizen, which underpins the overwhelming 96% market-implied odds against deportation in 2026.** Natural-born citizens cannot be deported from the United States under standard immigration law, and no credible reports or proceedings suggest any challenge to his status. Traders view the Australia visa cancellation and lifetime ban from May 2026—prompted by public backlash over his content—as irrelevant to U.S. residency, reinforcing the consensus that domestic removal is effectively off the table. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects verified biographical facts and the absence of any enforcement signals amid broader 2025–2026 deportation surges targeting noncitizens. While entertainment and influencer markets can shift on sudden controversies, Sneako’s U.S. citizenship creates a structural barrier that historical precedent and legal realities make nearly insurmountable. Realistic upset scenarios remain remote: they would require unprecedented actions such as citizenship revocation (typically limited to proven fraud or specific national-security cases not indicated here) or a market reinterpretation around foreign travel bans, both of which lack supporting developments and would demand extraordinary evidence to move odds meaningfully.