Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center observations show El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region already reaching +1.8°C and exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific. Official September 10 diagnostics assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event—typically defined by peak Niño 3.4 or Relative Oceanic Niño Index values of +2.0°C or higher—through the 2026–27 winter, aligning closely with the market’s 94.2% implied odds. Model ensembles and coupled ocean-atmosphere indicators support continued intensification into a potential historic peak during October–December. Traders weigh this consensus heavily, though realistic shifts could arise from unexpected model divergence, revised measurements, or a faster-than-expected transition after the seasonal peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Mar 31, 2027
94% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center observations show El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region already reaching +1.8°C and exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific. Official September 10 diagnostics assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event—typically defined by peak Niño 3.4 or Relative Oceanic Niño Index values of +2.0°C or higher—through the 2026–27 winter, aligning closely with the market’s 94.2% implied odds. Model ensembles and coupled ocean-atmosphere indicators support continued intensification into a potential historic peak during October–December. Traders weigh this consensus heavily, though realistic shifts could arise from unexpected model divergence, revised measurements, or a faster-than-expected transition after the seasonal peak.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,246Data zakończenia
Apr 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center observations show El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region already reaching +1.8°C and exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific. Official September 10 diagnostics assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event—typically defined by peak Niño 3.4 or Relative Oceanic Niño Index values of +2.0°C or higher—through the 2026–27 winter, aligning closely with the market’s 94.2% implied odds. Model ensembles and coupled ocean-atmosphere indicators support continued intensification into a potential historic peak during October–December. Traders weigh this consensus heavily, though realistic shifts could arise from unexpected model divergence, revised measurements, or a faster-than-expected transition after the seasonal peak.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Wolumen
$9,246Data zakończenia
Apr 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center observations show El Niño rapidly strengthening, with equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region already reaching +1.8°C and exceeding +3°C in the eastern Pacific. Official September 10 diagnostics assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event—typically defined by peak Niño 3.4 or Relative Oceanic Niño Index values of +2.0°C or higher—through the 2026–27 winter, aligning closely with the market’s 94.2% implied odds. Model ensembles and coupled ocean-atmosphere indicators support continued intensification into a potential historic peak during October–December. Traders weigh this consensus heavily, though realistic shifts could arise from unexpected model divergence, revised measurements, or a faster-than-expected transition after the seasonal peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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