Valve's measured rollout of trade-up expansions, including the October 2025 Covert-to-knife contracts and May 2026 Souvenir eligibility shift, has reshaped CS2 item supply lines without touching stickers. These updates followed Valve's typical pattern of limited-scope patches that reprice entire categories overnight while maintaining tight control over core mechanics. No patch notes, official communications, or credible leaks signal sticker trade-ups ahead of the November deadline, mirroring how teams avoid major roster overhauls without clear injury or performance data. Trader pricing reflects this deliberate pacing and the absence of recent momentum, leaving the feature as an underdog outcome with limited near-term catalysts.