A rapidly strengthening Super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +1.8°C and models projecting a peak exceeding +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant influence on early-season snowfall timing. NOAA assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong event this fall and winter, shifting the Pacific jet stream southward and favoring drier, warmer conditions across the northern U.S. and Canada while enhancing precipitation potential farther south. This pattern typically delays first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in northern plains and Great Lakes cities relative to climatological medians, while increasing early September chances at high-elevation Rocky Mountain sites in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Upcoming CPC seasonal outlooks and weekly ENSO updates will refine model consensus on jet stream positioning and cold-air intrusions that could trigger the initial events.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrimeira neve da temporada 2026

Buffalo, NY até 31 de outubro
50%

Denver, CO até 31 de outubro
49%

Minneapolis, MN até 31 de outubro
50%

Salt Lake City, UT até 31 de outubro
51%

Boston, MA até 15 de novembro
50%

Buffalo, NY até 15 de novembro
51%

Chicago, IL até 15 de novembro
70%

Denver, CO até 15 de novembro
51%

Detroit, MI até 15 de novembro
50%

Indianápolis, IN até 15 de novembro
51%

Kansas City, MO até 15 de novembro
50%

Minneapolis, MN até 15 de novembro
49%

Pittsburgh, PA até 15 de novembro
50%

Salt Lake City, UT até 15 de novembro
51%

Boston, MA até 30 de novembro
51%

Buffalo, NY até 30 de novembro
95%

Chicago, IL até 30 de novembro
51%

Cincinnati, OH até 30 de novembro
49%

Dallas, TX até 30 de novembro
30%

Denver, CO até 30 de novembro
71%

Detroit, MI até 30 de novembro
52%

Indianápolis, IN até 30 de novembro
50%

Kansas City, MO até 30 de novembro
51%

Minneapolis, MN até 30 de novembro
51%

Nashville, TN até 30 de novembro
51%

Cidade de Nova York, NY até 30 de novembro
51%

Filadélfia, PA até 30 de novembro
51%

Pittsburgh, PA até 30 de novembro
51%

Salt Lake City, UT até 30 de novembro
95%

St. Louis, MO até 30 de novembro
51%

Washington, DC até 30 de novembro
29%
$78 Vol.

Buffalo, NY até 31 de outubro
50%

Denver, CO até 31 de outubro
49%

Minneapolis, MN até 31 de outubro
50%

Salt Lake City, UT até 31 de outubro
51%

Boston, MA até 15 de novembro
50%

Buffalo, NY até 15 de novembro
51%

Chicago, IL até 15 de novembro
70%

Denver, CO até 15 de novembro
51%

Detroit, MI até 15 de novembro
50%

Indianápolis, IN até 15 de novembro
51%

Kansas City, MO até 15 de novembro
50%

Minneapolis, MN até 15 de novembro
49%

Pittsburgh, PA até 15 de novembro
50%

Salt Lake City, UT até 15 de novembro
51%

Boston, MA até 30 de novembro
51%

Buffalo, NY até 30 de novembro
95%

Chicago, IL até 30 de novembro
51%

Cincinnati, OH até 30 de novembro
49%

Dallas, TX até 30 de novembro
30%

Denver, CO até 30 de novembro
71%

Detroit, MI até 30 de novembro
52%

Indianápolis, IN até 30 de novembro
50%

Kansas City, MO até 30 de novembro
51%

Minneapolis, MN até 30 de novembro
51%

Nashville, TN até 30 de novembro
51%

Cidade de Nova York, NY até 30 de novembro
51%

Filadélfia, PA até 30 de novembro
51%

Pittsburgh, PA até 30 de novembro
51%

Salt Lake City, UT até 30 de novembro
95%

St. Louis, MO até 30 de novembro
51%

Washington, DC até 30 de novembro
29%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
A rapidly strengthening Super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +1.8°C and models projecting a peak exceeding +2.5°C by late 2026, stands as the dominant influence on early-season snowfall timing. NOAA assigns greater than 90% probability of a very strong event this fall and winter, shifting the Pacific jet stream southward and favoring drier, warmer conditions across the northern U.S. and Canada while enhancing precipitation potential farther south. This pattern typically delays first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in northern plains and Great Lakes cities relative to climatological medians, while increasing early September chances at high-elevation Rocky Mountain sites in Montana, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. Upcoming CPC seasonal outlooks and weekly ENSO updates will refine model consensus on jet stream positioning and cold-air intrusions that could trigger the initial events.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado

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