Merck and Moderna’s longstanding 50/50 collaboration on the intismeran autogene mRNA cancer vaccine with Keytruda has delivered a major catalyst with the August 19, 2026, positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 readout in resected high-risk melanoma, meeting recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints and lifting both stocks sharply. This success reinforces the value of the existing profit-sharing structure without requiring full ownership, while Merck has pursued separate bolt-on deals such as Cidara and faces 2028 Keytruda U.S. exclusivity pressure. No regulatory filings, board discussions, or market rumors point to an imminent merger or acquisition by year-end, supporting the 88.5% market-implied probability of no announcement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
11% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
11% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Merck and Moderna’s longstanding 50/50 collaboration on the intismeran autogene mRNA cancer vaccine with Keytruda has delivered a major catalyst with the August 19, 2026, positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 readout in resected high-risk melanoma, meeting recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints and lifting both stocks sharply. This success reinforces the value of the existing profit-sharing structure without requiring full ownership, while Merck has pursued separate bolt-on deals such as Cidara and faces 2028 Keytruda U.S. exclusivity pressure. No regulatory filings, board discussions, or market rumors point to an imminent merger or acquisition by year-end, supporting the 88.5% market-implied probability of no announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ET
Volume
$458Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Merck and Moderna’s longstanding 50/50 collaboration on the intismeran autogene mRNA cancer vaccine with Keytruda has delivered a major catalyst with the August 19, 2026, positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 readout in resected high-risk melanoma, meeting recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints and lifting both stocks sharply. This success reinforces the value of the existing profit-sharing structure without requiring full ownership, while Merck has pursued separate bolt-on deals such as Cidara and faces 2028 Keytruda U.S. exclusivity pressure. No regulatory filings, board discussions, or market rumors point to an imminent merger or acquisition by year-end, supporting the 88.5% market-implied probability of no announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries.
An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$458Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 19, 2026, 3:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Merck and Moderna’s longstanding 50/50 collaboration on the intismeran autogene mRNA cancer vaccine with Keytruda has delivered a major catalyst with the August 19, 2026, positive Phase 3 INTerpath-001 readout in resected high-risk melanoma, meeting recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival endpoints and lifting both stocks sharply. This success reinforces the value of the existing profit-sharing structure without requiring full ownership, while Merck has pursued separate bolt-on deals such as Cidara and faces 2028 Keytruda U.S. exclusivity pressure. No regulatory filings, board discussions, or market rumors point to an imminent merger or acquisition by year-end, supporting the 88.5% market-implied probability of no announcement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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