Traders assign the highest implied probability (43.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 at end-2026, driven by sustained corporate earnings expansion, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, alongside resilient economic data and expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy. Recent second-quarter 2026 earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026-2027 EPS estimates have reinforced this view, while Treasury yields and equity volatility measures remain supportive of risk assets. The $7,500-$8,000 bucket at 23% captures scenarios of moderate growth amid potential rate stabilization, whereas lower ranges reflect downside risks from inflation reacceleration or geopolitical shocks. With roughly four months until year-end, upcoming economic releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping these aggregated market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
O que o S&P 500 (SPX) fechará no final de 2026?
>$8.000 44%
$7.500-$8.000 23%
$7.000-$7.500 16%
$6.500-$7.000 12%
$39,789 Vol.
$39,789 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
6%
$6.000–$6.500
8%
$6.500-$7.000
12%
$7.000-$7.500
16%
$7.500-$8.000
23%
>$8.000
44%
>$8.000 44%
$7.500-$8.000 23%
$7.000-$7.500 16%
$6.500-$7.000 12%
$39,789 Vol.
$39,789 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Abaixo de $6.000
$20,527 Vol.
6%
$6.000–$6.500
$2,312 Vol.
8%
$6.500-$7.000
$4,408 Vol.
12%
$7.000-$7.500
$2,460 Vol.
16%
$7.500-$8.000
$4,035 Vol.
23%
>$8.000
$6,048 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Traders assign the highest implied probability (43.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 at end-2026, driven by sustained corporate earnings expansion, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, alongside resilient economic data and expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy. Recent second-quarter 2026 earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026-2027 EPS estimates have reinforced this view, while Treasury yields and equity volatility measures remain supportive of risk assets. The $7,500-$8,000 bucket at 23% captures scenarios of moderate growth amid potential rate stabilization, whereas lower ranges reflect downside risks from inflation reacceleration or geopolitical shocks. With roughly four months until year-end, upcoming economic releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping these aggregated market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$39,789Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Traders assign the highest implied probability (43.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 at end-2026, driven by sustained corporate earnings expansion, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, alongside resilient economic data and expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy. Recent second-quarter 2026 earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026-2027 EPS estimates have reinforced this view, while Treasury yields and equity volatility measures remain supportive of risk assets. The $7,500-$8,000 bucket at 23% captures scenarios of moderate growth amid potential rate stabilization, whereas lower ranges reflect downside risks from inflation reacceleration or geopolitical shocks. With roughly four months until year-end, upcoming economic releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping these aggregated market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$39,789Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the highest implied probability (43.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 at end-2026, driven by sustained corporate earnings expansion, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, alongside resilient economic data and expectations for steady Federal Reserve policy. Recent second-quarter 2026 earnings beats and upward revisions to 2026-2027 EPS estimates have reinforced this view, while Treasury yields and equity volatility measures remain supportive of risk assets. The $7,500-$8,000 bucket at 23% captures scenarios of moderate growth amid potential rate stabilization, whereas lower ranges reflect downside risks from inflation reacceleration or geopolitical shocks. With roughly four months until year-end, upcoming economic releases and FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts shaping these aggregated market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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