Mario Arce Fernandez enters this M15 Madrid clay-court matchup with greater recent match volume and qualifier success on Spanish surfaces, posting wins in events like M15 Xativa and M25 Denia through July 2026 while maintaining a near-even career win rate around 48 percent. Vicente Alcaraz Galbis, a fellow young Spaniard with far fewer professional outings, holds a modest 5-4 record concentrated on clay but lacks comparable 2026 activity or depth against similar opposition. Both players benefit from home-soil familiarity and the slower, higher-bouncing conditions typical of Madrid ITF events, yet Arce Fernandez’s extended schedule and direct experience in the tournament draw provide the primary edge reflected in trader pricing. Injury absence or draw position changes remain the main variables that could shift implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTodos os Desportos
Sep 1·8:00 AM
M. Fernandez-
V. Galbis-
$0.00 Vol.
NOVO
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Mario Arce Fernandez' if Mario Arce Fernandez advances against Vicente Alcaraz Galbis.
This market will resolve to 'Vicente Alcaraz Galbis' if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis advances against Mario Arce Fernandez.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Fernandez" if Mario Arce Fernandez wins by 2 or more sets than Vicente Alcaraz Galbis, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Galbis."
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Mario Arce Fernandez can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Galbis."
If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Fernandez” if Mario Arce Fernandez wins set 2. It will resolve to “Galbis” if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis wins set 2.
If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional sets required. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least one additional set, resulting in at least 3 sets played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled, or has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless an outcome was already unequivocally determined as described above.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Fernandez” if Mario Arce Fernandez wins the first set. It will resolve to “Galbis” if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis wins the first set.
If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.This market refers to the tennis match between Vicente Alcaraz Galbis and Mario Arce Fernandez in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Galbis" if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis wins by 2 or more sets than Mario Arce Fernandez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Fernandez."
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Vicente Alcaraz Galbis can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Fernandez."
If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mario Arce Fernandez enters this M15 Madrid clay-court matchup with greater recent match volume and qualifier success on Spanish surfaces, posting wins in events like M15 Xativa and M25 Denia through July 2026 while maintaining a near-even career win rate around 48 percent. Vicente Alcaraz Galbis, a fellow young Spaniard with far fewer professional outings, holds a modest 5-4 record concentrated on clay but lacks comparable 2026 activity or depth against similar opposition. Both players benefit from home-soil familiarity and the slower, higher-bouncing conditions typical of Madrid ITF events, yet Arce Fernandez’s extended schedule and direct experience in the tournament draw provide the primary edge reflected in trader pricing. Injury absence or draw position changes remain the main variables that could shift implied probabilities.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Mario Arce Fernandez' if Mario Arce Fernandez advances against Vicente Alcaraz Galbis.
This market will resolve to 'Vicente Alcaraz Galbis' if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis advances against Mario Arce Fernandez.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to 'Mario Arce Fernandez' if Mario Arce Fernandez advances against Vicente Alcaraz Galbis.
This market will resolve to 'Vicente Alcaraz Galbis' if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis advances against Mario Arce Fernandez.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
8 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Sep 1·8:00 AM
M. Fernandez-
V. Galbis-
$0.00 Vol.
NOVO
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Mario Arce Fernandez' if Mario Arce Fernandez advances against Vicente Alcaraz Galbis.
This market will resolve to 'Vicente Alcaraz Galbis' if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis advances against Mario Arce Fernandez.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Fernandez" if Mario Arce Fernandez wins by 2 or more sets than Vicente Alcaraz Galbis, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Galbis."
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Mario Arce Fernandez can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Galbis."
If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Fernandez” if Mario Arce Fernandez wins set 2. It will resolve to “Galbis” if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis wins set 2.
If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
If the match is played to completion, this market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets played equals or exceeds 3, and to "Under" otherwise. A set counts as played once it has begun, even if it is not played to completion. A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If a player retires, withdraws, is defaulted, or is disqualified, or the match otherwise begins but is not completed, this market will resolve based on any outcome that was already unequivocally determined at the time play stopped. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional sets required. For example, for a line of 2.5, if play stops with the players at one set each, completing the match would have required at least one additional set, resulting in at least 3 sets played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If neither outcome was already determined at the time play stopped, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled, or has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless an outcome was already unequivocally determined as described above.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 22. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Fernandez” if Mario Arce Fernandez wins the first set. It will resolve to “Galbis” if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis wins the first set.
If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF match statistics.This market refers to the tennis match between Vicente Alcaraz Galbis and Mario Arce Fernandez in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Galbis" if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis wins by 2 or more sets than Mario Arce Fernandez, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Fernandez."
If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Vicente Alcaraz Galbis can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Fernandez."
If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the match been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 21.5, if play stops at 6-3, 5-6, completing the match would have required at least 2 additional games, resulting in at least 22 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under."
Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total.
If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official ITF results.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game.
If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution.
If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered determined if it would have been guaranteed had the set been played to completion using the minimum number of additional games required. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mario Arce Fernandez enters this M15 Madrid clay-court matchup with greater recent match volume and qualifier success on Spanish surfaces, posting wins in events like M15 Xativa and M25 Denia through July 2026 while maintaining a near-even career win rate around 48 percent. Vicente Alcaraz Galbis, a fellow young Spaniard with far fewer professional outings, holds a modest 5-4 record concentrated on clay but lacks comparable 2026 activity or depth against similar opposition. Both players benefit from home-soil familiarity and the slower, higher-bouncing conditions typical of Madrid ITF events, yet Arce Fernandez’s extended schedule and direct experience in the tournament draw provide the primary edge reflected in trader pricing. Injury absence or draw position changes remain the main variables that could shift implied probabilities.
This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Arce Fernandez and Vicente Alcaraz Galbis in the M15 Madrid, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Mario Arce Fernandez' if Mario Arce Fernandez advances against Vicente Alcaraz Galbis.
This market will resolve to 'Vicente Alcaraz Galbis' if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis advances against Mario Arce Fernandez.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to 'Mario Arce Fernandez' if Mario Arce Fernandez advances against Vicente Alcaraz Galbis.
This market will resolve to 'Vicente Alcaraz Galbis' if Vicente Alcaraz Galbis advances against Mario Arce Fernandez.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
8 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 11:19 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mario Arce Fernandez enters this M15 Madrid clay-court matchup with greater recent match volume and qualifier success on Spanish surfaces, posting wins in events like M15 Xativa and M25 Denia through July 2026 while maintaining a near-even career win rate around 48 percent. Vicente Alcaraz Galbis, a fellow young Spaniard with far fewer professional outings, holds a modest 5-4 record concentrated on clay but lacks comparable 2026 activity or depth against similar opposition. Both players benefit from home-soil familiarity and the slower, higher-bouncing conditions typical of Madrid ITF events, yet Arce Fernandez’s extended schedule and direct experience in the tournament draw provide the primary edge reflected in trader pricing. Injury absence or draw position changes remain the main variables that could shift implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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