Trader consensus pins France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, edged ahead by their FIFA rankings lead, Kylian Mbappé's captaincy and scoring form, and a favorable group draw with Norway, Senegal, and Iraq after topping UEFA qualifiers. Spain sits close at 16.4%, buoyed by Euro 2024 success, Lamine Yamal's emergence, and Rodri's midfield control in a winnable group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) cluster tightly, reflecting parity from dominant qualifying campaigns—Argentina and Ecuador topping CONMEBOL, Brazil rebounding despite a fifth-place finish—and Lionel Messi's recent comments rating France, Spain, Brazil, and Portugal ahead of his defending champions amid the expanded 48-team field's depth and knockout volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоФранция 18.1%
Испания 16.4%
Англия 11.5%
Бразилия 9.2%
$968,767,725 Объем
$968,767,725 Объем
Франция
18%
Испания
16%
Англия
11%
Бразилия
9%
Аргентина
9%
Португалия
8%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
2%
Япония
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Швейцария
1%
Уругвай
1%
Мексика
1%
Хорватия
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Турция
1%
Австрия
1%
Швеция
1%
Канада
<1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Чехия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Босния и Герцеговина
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Панама
<1%
Ирак
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
ДР Конго
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
Франция 18.1%
Испания 16.4%
Англия 11.5%
Бразилия 9.2%
$968,767,725 Объем
$968,767,725 Объем
Франция
18%
Испания
16%
Англия
11%
Бразилия
9%
Аргентина
9%
Португалия
8%
Германия
5%
Нидерланды
3%
Норвегия
2%
Япония
2%
Бельгия
2%
Колумбия
2%
США
2%
Марокко
2%
Швейцария
1%
Уругвай
1%
Мексика
1%
Хорватия
1%
Эквадор
1%
Сенегал
1%
Турция
1%
Австрия
1%
Швеция
1%
Канада
<1%
Южная Корея
<1%
Парагвай
<1%
Шотландия
<1%
Кот-д’Ивуар
<1%
Чехия
<1%
Египет
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Алжир
<1%
Босния и Герцеговина
<1%
Тунис
<1%
Австралия
<1%
Новая Зеландия
<1%
Гаити
<1%
Иордания
<1%
Кюрасао
<1%
Иран
<1%
Узбекистан
<1%
Панама
<1%
Ирак
<1%
Южная Африка
<1%
ДР Конго
<1%
Кабо-Верде
<1%
Катар
<1%
Саудовская Аравия
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus pins France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, edged ahead by their FIFA rankings lead, Kylian Mbappé's captaincy and scoring form, and a favorable group draw with Norway, Senegal, and Iraq after topping UEFA qualifiers. Spain sits close at 16.4%, buoyed by Euro 2024 success, Lamine Yamal's emergence, and Rodri's midfield control in a winnable group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) cluster tightly, reflecting parity from dominant qualifying campaigns—Argentina and Ecuador topping CONMEBOL, Brazil rebounding despite a fifth-place finish—and Lionel Messi's recent comments rating France, Spain, Brazil, and Portugal ahead of his defending champions amid the expanded 48-team field's depth and knockout volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы