Traders assign a 96% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS historical data showing an average recurrence of roughly 25–50 years globally. The last confirmed M9+ quake occurred in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan, and recent activity in 2026 has been limited to a maximum of 7.8, consistent with typical annual rates of one M8+ event. Megathrust subduction zones capable of these ruptures exhibit long interseismic periods, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences indicating imminent failure. While an unexpected great earthquake on segments like the Cascadia or Chile margins remains theoretically possible before year-end, the short remaining timeframe and absence of precursors strongly support the prevailing market consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено9,0 или выше землетрясения до 2027 года?
9,0 или выше землетрясения до 2027 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$318,222 Объем
$318,222 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$318,222 Объем
$318,222 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 96% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS historical data showing an average recurrence of roughly 25–50 years globally. The last confirmed M9+ quake occurred in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan, and recent activity in 2026 has been limited to a maximum of 7.8, consistent with typical annual rates of one M8+ event. Megathrust subduction zones capable of these ruptures exhibit long interseismic periods, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences indicating imminent failure. While an unexpected great earthquake on segments like the Cascadia or Chile margins remains theoretically possible before year-end, the short remaining timeframe and absence of precursors strongly support the prevailing market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Объем
$318,222Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 96% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS historical data showing an average recurrence of roughly 25–50 years globally. The last confirmed M9+ quake occurred in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan, and recent activity in 2026 has been limited to a maximum of 7.8, consistent with typical annual rates of one M8+ event. Megathrust subduction zones capable of these ruptures exhibit long interseismic periods, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences indicating imminent failure. While an unexpected great earthquake on segments like the Cascadia or Chile margins remains theoretically possible before year-end, the short remaining timeframe and absence of precursors strongly support the prevailing market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$318,222Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 due to the extreme rarity of such events, with USGS historical data showing an average recurrence of roughly 25–50 years globally. The last confirmed M9+ quake occurred in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan, and recent activity in 2026 has been limited to a maximum of 7.8, consistent with typical annual rates of one M8+ event. Megathrust subduction zones capable of these ruptures exhibit long interseismic periods, and current USGS monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock sequences indicating imminent failure. While an unexpected great earthquake on segments like the Cascadia or Chile margins remains theoretically possible before year-end, the short remaining timeframe and absence of precursors strongly support the prevailing market consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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