The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, confirmed by the USGS instrumental record showing only five such events worldwide since 1900, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability of none occurring before 2027. These megathrust ruptures require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers on subduction zones, with global rates estimated at roughly three per century and individual zone recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries. Recent activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and multiple 2026 M7+ quakes off Indonesia and elsewhere, shows no foreshock sequences, strain accumulation signals, or model consensus indicating imminent escalation to the 9.0 threshold. Continuous USGS monitoring through year-end could still reveal unexpected acceleration in a high-risk zone such as the Kuril-Kamchatka or Chilean trench.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено9,0 или выше землетрясения до 2027 года?
9,0 или выше землетрясения до 2027 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$279,429 Объем
$279,429 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$279,429 Объем
$279,429 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, confirmed by the USGS instrumental record showing only five such events worldwide since 1900, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability of none occurring before 2027. These megathrust ruptures require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers on subduction zones, with global rates estimated at roughly three per century and individual zone recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries. Recent activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and multiple 2026 M7+ quakes off Indonesia and elsewhere, shows no foreshock sequences, strain accumulation signals, or model consensus indicating imminent escalation to the 9.0 threshold. Continuous USGS monitoring through year-end could still reveal unexpected acceleration in a high-risk zone such as the Kuril-Kamchatka or Chilean trench.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Объем
$279,429Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, confirmed by the USGS instrumental record showing only five such events worldwide since 1900, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability of none occurring before 2027. These megathrust ruptures require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers on subduction zones, with global rates estimated at roughly three per century and individual zone recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries. Recent activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and multiple 2026 M7+ quakes off Indonesia and elsewhere, shows no foreshock sequences, strain accumulation signals, or model consensus indicating imminent escalation to the 9.0 threshold. Continuous USGS monitoring through year-end could still reveal unexpected acceleration in a high-risk zone such as the Kuril-Kamchatka or Chilean trench.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$279,429Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, confirmed by the USGS instrumental record showing only five such events worldwide since 1900, underpins the 95.6% market-implied probability of none occurring before 2027. These megathrust ruptures require simultaneous failure across hundreds of kilometers on subduction zones, with global rates estimated at roughly three per century and individual zone recurrence intervals spanning decades to centuries. Recent activity, including the July 2025 M8.8 Kamchatka event and multiple 2026 M7+ quakes off Indonesia and elsewhere, shows no foreshock sequences, strain accumulation signals, or model consensus indicating imminent escalation to the 9.0 threshold. Continuous USGS monitoring through year-end could still reveal unexpected acceleration in a high-risk zone such as the Kuril-Kamchatka or Chilean trench.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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