The enhanced ACA premium tax credits expired December 31, 2025, after Senate Republicans blocked multiple extension proposals in late 2025 and early 2026, including a three-year House-passed measure and compromise efforts tied to spending negotiations. No further legislative action has advanced an extension ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterms. Concurrently, the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats ahead by roughly 7–9 points, producing forecasts that assign them a 71–89% probability of securing House control. This combination drives the 92% market weighting on no extension paired with Democratic majority. A post-election extension during the lame-duck session or a sharp late polling reversal could still alter the paired outcome.