Recent polling and forecaster adjustments have tightened the Alabama 2nd District contest between incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques ahead of the November 3 election. Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race to toss-up from leans Republican, while the Cook Political Report moved it to lean Republican from likely Republican, citing private surveys showing a near-dead heat despite the district’s R+7 partisan lean under the redrawn map. A late October Remington Research poll of likely voters showed Marques ahead 48%-46%. Both campaigns have spent heavily on advertising exceeding $11 million, with Figures holding a substantial cash-on-hand and fundraising edge that has supported Democratic turnout efforts. Trump’s repeated endorsements for Marques and attacks on Figures’ record have reinforced Republican positioning, while the incumbent has emphasized economic contrasts and cross-party appeal in a district that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. These factors underpin the market’s modest Republican edge.