The Alabama 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+33 PVI and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, anchors trader expectations for a sizable victory by incumbent Robert Aderholt over Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek. Both candidates secured nominations in the May 2026 primaries with decisive margins, leaving limited uncertainty about the matchup itself. Sparse public polling and the race's low national profile contribute to the spread across margin buckets, as traders weigh midterm turnout patterns, potential shifts in national political conditions, and the challenger's ability to mobilize limited Democratic support in this rural north-central seat. All major forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Republican, though unexpected national tailwinds for Democrats or unusually high opposition turnout could compress the final spread before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAL-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей
AL-04 Предел победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Republican 60-65% 28%
Republican 55-60% 24%
Republican 65-70% 22%
Республиканец 50-55% 9.3%
$13,528 Объем
$13,528 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican 75%+
1%
Republican 70-75%
7%
Republican 65-70%
22%
Republican 60-65%
28%
Republican 55-60%
24%
Республиканец 50-55%
9%
Республиканец 45-50%
5%
Республиканец 35-45%
2%
Республиканец 0-35%
<1%
Победа демократа
5%
Republican 60-65% 28%
Republican 55-60% 24%
Republican 65-70% 22%
Республиканец 50-55% 9.3%
$13,528 Объем
$13,528 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican 75%+
$293 Объем
1%
Republican 70-75%
$521 Объем
7%
Republican 65-70%
$2,881 Объем
22%
Republican 60-65%
$3,607 Объем
28%
Republican 55-60%
$3,056 Объем
24%
Республиканец 50-55%
$458 Объем
9%
Республиканец 45-50%
$327 Объем
5%
Республиканец 35-45%
$1,744 Объем
2%
Республиканец 0-35%
$362 Объем
<1%
Победа демократа
$279 Объем
5%
The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Alabama 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+33 PVI and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, anchors trader expectations for a sizable victory by incumbent Robert Aderholt over Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek. Both candidates secured nominations in the May 2026 primaries with decisive margins, leaving limited uncertainty about the matchup itself. Sparse public polling and the race's low national profile contribute to the spread across margin buckets, as traders weigh midterm turnout patterns, potential shifts in national political conditions, and the challenger's ability to mobilize limited Democratic support in this rural north-central seat. All major forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Republican, though unexpected national tailwinds for Democrats or unusually high opposition turnout could compress the final spread before November 3.
The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$13,528Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Alabama 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+33 PVI and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, anchors trader expectations for a sizable victory by incumbent Robert Aderholt over Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek. Both candidates secured nominations in the May 2026 primaries with decisive margins, leaving limited uncertainty about the matchup itself. Sparse public polling and the race's low national profile contribute to the spread across margin buckets, as traders weigh midterm turnout patterns, potential shifts in national political conditions, and the challenger's ability to mobilize limited Democratic support in this rural north-central seat. All major forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Republican, though unexpected national tailwinds for Democrats or unusually high opposition turnout could compress the final spread before November 3.
The 2026 AL-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$13,528Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Alabama 4th congressional district's strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+33 PVI and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles, anchors trader expectations for a sizable victory by incumbent Robert Aderholt over Democratic nominee Amanda Pusczek. Both candidates secured nominations in the May 2026 primaries with decisive margins, leaving limited uncertainty about the matchup itself. Sparse public polling and the race's low national profile contribute to the spread across margin buckets, as traders weigh midterm turnout patterns, potential shifts in national political conditions, and the challenger's ability to mobilize limited Democratic support in this rural north-central seat. All major forecasters rate the contest safe or solid Republican, though unexpected national tailwinds for Democrats or unusually high opposition turnout could compress the final spread before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу AL-03 в 2026 году с отрывом в 35%-40%?
35%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей округа AL-07 в 2026 году с преимуществом в 30-35%?
23%
Да
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 25%-30%?
26%
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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