Alaska's 2026 Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election rated a toss-up by forecasters, with recent polls showing margins of two points or less. The open gubernatorial race, following term limits on Republican Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded field including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Click Bishop, with early surveys indicating no dominant frontrunner and a fragmented primary set for August 18. These dynamics produce elevated probabilities for split outcomes and "Other" results, as traders weigh the independent voter base, ranked-choice mechanics, and limited polling on final general-election pairings ahead of November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобеда демократов 36%
Победа республиканцев 32%
Республиканцы выигрывают губернатора, демократы выигрывают Сенат 20%
Демократы выигрывают губернатора, республиканцы выигрывают сенат 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Победа демократов
36%
Победа республиканцев
32%
Республиканцы выигрывают губернатора, демократы выигрывают Сенат
20%
Демократы выигрывают губернатора, республиканцы выигрывают сенат
18%
Победа демократов 36%
Победа республиканцев 32%
Республиканцы выигрывают губернатора, демократы выигрывают Сенат 20%
Демократы выигрывают губернатора, республиканцы выигрывают сенат 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Победа демократов
$75 Объем
36%
Победа республиканцев
$0 Объем
32%
Республиканцы выигрывают губернатора, демократы выигрывают Сенат
$0 Объем
20%
Демократы выигрывают губернатора, республиканцы выигрывают сенат
$20 Объем
18%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska's 2026 Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election rated a toss-up by forecasters, with recent polls showing margins of two points or less. The open gubernatorial race, following term limits on Republican Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded field including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Click Bishop, with early surveys indicating no dominant frontrunner and a fragmented primary set for August 18. These dynamics produce elevated probabilities for split outcomes and "Other" results, as traders weigh the independent voter base, ranked-choice mechanics, and limited polling on final general-election pairings ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Объем
$95Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska's 2026 Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election rated a toss-up by forecasters, with recent polls showing margins of two points or less. The open gubernatorial race, following term limits on Republican Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded field including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Click Bishop, with early surveys indicating no dominant frontrunner and a fragmented primary set for August 18. These dynamics produce elevated probabilities for split outcomes and "Other" results, as traders weigh the independent voter base, ranked-choice mechanics, and limited polling on final general-election pairings ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$95Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alaska's 2026 Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a nonpartisan primary and ranked-choice general election rated a toss-up by forecasters, with recent polls showing margins of two points or less. The open gubernatorial race, following term limits on Republican Mike Dunleavy, features a crowded field including Democrats Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins alongside Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Click Bishop, with early surveys indicating no dominant frontrunner and a fragmented primary set for August 18. These dynamics produce elevated probabilities for split outcomes and "Other" results, as traders weigh the independent voter base, ranked-choice mechanics, and limited polling on final general-election pairings ahead of November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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