Recent polling shows the Alaska top-four primary on August 18 remains highly competitive, with Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan trading narrow leads in surveys from Alaska Survey Research and New York Times/Siena. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge has not yet produced clear separation, as vote splitting among more than a dozen candidates—including a second Republican named Dan Sullivan—keeps first-place margins fluid under the nonpartisan format. Traders assign the largest probability to outcomes outside the listed Peltola or Sullivan bands, reflecting uncertainty over whether any single contender will exceed low-single-digit leads once all ballots are counted. Late shifts in turnout among independents and the impact of ranked-choice elements on general-election positioning could still widen or compress the final primary spread before results are certified.