Omar Aziz (PSD) holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Amazonas gubernatorial runoff because recent polls consistently show him ahead of Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) by 6–22 points among valid votes. Multiple surveys from mid-October, including Pontual, Projeta, PoderData, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data, place Aziz between 53% and 61% of valid votes, with wider margins in the interior and narrower gaps in Manaus. He advanced from the first round on October 4 with 40.63% of valid votes against her 24.49%, backed by a broad coalition including PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and PT-aligned parties. The October 25 vote date leaves limited time for shifts, reinforcing trader consensus around the polling trends.