The incumbent People’s Party (PP), led by regional president Juanma Moreno, holds a commanding position ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election, with recent polling averages placing it at 42–45 percent and projecting 54–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, enough for an absolute majority. This reflects sustained voter support for the current administration’s governance record, contrasted with the PSOE-A’s projected 21–24 percent share and the opposition’s internal challenges under candidate María Jesús Montero. Smaller parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía remain fragmented below 17 percent each, limiting any path to a governing coalition. Trader consensus at 99.5 percent for the PP incorporates these consistent seat projections and historical patterns of regional incumbency advantage, though an unusually high turnout surge for left-leaning blocs or last-minute shifts could still narrow the margin on election night.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPP 99.5%
PSOE-A 1.1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$169,883 Объем
$169,883 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
PP
100%
PSOE-A
1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.5%
PSOE-A 1.1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$169,883 Объем
$169,883 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
PP
$60,445 Объем
100%
PSOE-A
$63,033 Объем
1%
VOX
$36,234 Объем
<1%
PA
$5,745 Объем
<1%
AA
$4,426 Объем
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.The incumbent People’s Party (PP), led by regional president Juanma Moreno, holds a commanding position ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election, with recent polling averages placing it at 42–45 percent and projecting 54–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, enough for an absolute majority. This reflects sustained voter support for the current administration’s governance record, contrasted with the PSOE-A’s projected 21–24 percent share and the opposition’s internal challenges under candidate María Jesús Montero. Smaller parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía remain fragmented below 17 percent each, limiting any path to a governing coalition. Trader consensus at 99.5 percent for the PP incorporates these consistent seat projections and historical patterns of regional incumbency advantage, though an unusually high turnout surge for left-leaning blocs or last-minute shifts could still narrow the margin on election night.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$169,883Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.The incumbent People’s Party (PP), led by regional president Juanma Moreno, holds a commanding position ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election, with recent polling averages placing it at 42–45 percent and projecting 54–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, enough for an absolute majority. This reflects sustained voter support for the current administration’s governance record, contrasted with the PSOE-A’s projected 21–24 percent share and the opposition’s internal challenges under candidate María Jesús Montero. Smaller parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía remain fragmented below 17 percent each, limiting any path to a governing coalition. Trader consensus at 99.5 percent for the PP incorporates these consistent seat projections and historical patterns of regional incumbency advantage, though an unusually high turnout surge for left-leaning blocs or last-minute shifts could still narrow the margin on election night.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Объем
$169,883Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The incumbent People’s Party (PP), led by regional president Juanma Moreno, holds a commanding position ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election, with recent polling averages placing it at 42–45 percent and projecting 54–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, enough for an absolute majority. This reflects sustained voter support for the current administration’s governance record, contrasted with the PSOE-A’s projected 21–24 percent share and the opposition’s internal challenges under candidate María Jesús Montero. Smaller parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía remain fragmented below 17 percent each, limiting any path to a governing coalition. Trader consensus at 99.5 percent for the PP incorporates these consistent seat projections and historical patterns of regional incumbency advantage, though an unusually high turnout surge for left-leaning blocs or last-minute shifts could still narrow the margin on election night.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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