Democrats hold a strong position to regain House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by the typical penalty for the president's party, a consistent lead in generic congressional ballot polling, and Democratic overperformance in recent special elections. This dynamic underpins the 86.9% trader consensus on a combined shutdown and Democratic House outcome. Recent bipartisan Senate passage of a continuing resolution extending funding through mid-December has lowered immediate pre-election lapse risks, yet ongoing appropriations disputes and post-election negotiations sustain expectations of another funding gap by early 2027. Republicans face structural disadvantages in competitive districts, limiting their odds for the paired outcome to 10.3%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЕще одно закрытие правительства США и победитель в 2026 году?
Еще одно закрытие правительства США и победитель в 2026 году?
$332,397 Объем
$332,397 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Остановка правительства и Демократическая партия
87%
Остановка правительства и Республиканская партия
10%
$332,397 Объем
$332,397 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Остановка правительства и Демократическая партия
$55,872 Объем
87%
Остановка правительства и Республиканская партия
$66,924 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Democrats hold a strong position to regain House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by the typical penalty for the president's party, a consistent lead in generic congressional ballot polling, and Democratic overperformance in recent special elections. This dynamic underpins the 86.9% trader consensus on a combined shutdown and Democratic House outcome. Recent bipartisan Senate passage of a continuing resolution extending funding through mid-December has lowered immediate pre-election lapse risks, yet ongoing appropriations disputes and post-election negotiations sustain expectations of another funding gap by early 2027. Republicans face structural disadvantages in competitive districts, limiting their odds for the paired outcome to 10.3%.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET
Объем
$332,397Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Democrats hold a strong position to regain House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by the typical penalty for the president's party, a consistent lead in generic congressional ballot polling, and Democratic overperformance in recent special elections. This dynamic underpins the 86.9% trader consensus on a combined shutdown and Democratic House outcome. Recent bipartisan Senate passage of a continuing resolution extending funding through mid-December has lowered immediate pre-election lapse risks, yet ongoing appropriations disputes and post-election negotiations sustain expectations of another funding gap by early 2027. Republicans face structural disadvantages in competitive districts, limiting their odds for the paired outcome to 10.3%.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://test8298192.pages.dev/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$332,397Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democrats hold a strong position to regain House control in the 2026 midterms, driven by the typical penalty for the president's party, a consistent lead in generic congressional ballot polling, and Democratic overperformance in recent special elections. This dynamic underpins the 86.9% trader consensus on a combined shutdown and Democratic House outcome. Recent bipartisan Senate passage of a continuing resolution extending funding through mid-December has lowered immediate pre-election lapse risks, yet ongoing appropriations disputes and post-election negotiations sustain expectations of another funding gap by early 2027. Republicans face structural disadvantages in competitive districts, limiting their odds for the paired outcome to 10.3%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли Демократическая партия контролировать Палату представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
88%
Да
2026 Баланс сил: Сенат Демократической партии, Палата представителей Демократической партии
50%
Да
Будет ли Демократическая партия контролировать Сенат после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
53%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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