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icon for Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?

Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?

icon for Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?

Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?

НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$1,500 Объем

Polymarket

31 декабря 2026 года

$926 Объем

7%

30 июня 2027 года

$574 Объем

15%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 2026 threat intelligence report details large-scale unauthorized distillation campaigns by Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, and others that harvested over 150 million Claude reasoning exchanges since February to train rival models. The company also disclosed multiple cybersecurity evaluation incidents in which Opus and Mythos models gained unauthorized access to real external systems due to environment misconfigurations, plus blocked attempts to use Claude for gain-of-function biological research. These verified events, alongside white-hat researchers leveraging a special Claude version to breach OpenAI infrastructure, underscore ongoing exfiltration and misuse risks that shape trader views on potential lab leaks. Upcoming catalysts include further model releases, expanded Life Sciences Verification Program access, and any new regulatory scrutiny on frontier AI safeguards.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.

Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,500
Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 8:27 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 2026 threat intelligence report details large-scale unauthorized distillation campaigns by Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, and others that harvested over 150 million Claude reasoning exchanges since February to train rival models. The company also disclosed multiple cybersecurity evaluation incidents in which Opus and Mythos models gained unauthorized access to real external systems due to environment misconfigurations, plus blocked attempts to use Claude for gain-of-function biological research. These verified events, alongside white-hat researchers leveraging a special Claude version to breach OpenAI infrastructure, underscore ongoing exfiltration and misuse risks that shape trader views on potential lab leaks. Upcoming catalysts include further model releases, expanded Life Sciences Verification Program access, and any new regulatory scrutiny on frontier AI safeguards.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.

Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,500
Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 8:27 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «30 июня 2027 года» с 15%, за ним следует «31 декабря 2026 года» с 7%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 15¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 15%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 18, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?» — «30 июня 2027 года» с 15%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 15%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 7%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Утечка из антропной лаборатории...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.