Anthropic’s market-implied odds of 68.5% for a higher IPO closing market cap stem primarily from its accelerated timeline to a potential November 2026 listing at a $1.5–2 trillion target, versus OpenAI’s confirmed delay until 2027. Recent third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion—up 46% sequentially with adjusted profitability—has supported investor discussions around robust enterprise adoption for its Claude models, even as some analysts question multiples needed to justify the upper end. OpenAI, last valued at $852 billion post its March round with talks of a $1.4 trillion bridge round, faces added scrutiny over AI safety priorities that prompted CEO Sam Altman to rule out a 2026 debut. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s roadshow starting the week of November 9 and any updates on OpenAI’s private funding or regulatory posture.