**The selection process for António Guterres’s successor as UN Secretary-General remains open and unresolved as of late August 2026, with Security Council straw polls on July 30 and August 21 failing to produce a candidate backed by the required nine votes.** Guterres completes his second five-year term on December 31, 2026, after which a new appointee would normally assume office on January 1, 2027. Eight candidates have been nominated, and informal polls show a fragmented field led by figures such as Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, without consensus or veto-proof support from permanent Security Council members. This lack of agreement keeps alive the possibility of procedural delays or a temporary extension of the incumbent’s term, a scenario referenced in UN analyses drawing on precedents like the U Thant case. Traders’ 56% implied probability on “No” (Guterres not out by year-end) reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment of ongoing closed-door negotiations, the need to avoid vetoes, and the risk that the General Assembly appointment cannot be finalized before the term expires. Recent interactive dialogues and the August 21 poll results have not accelerated consensus, sustaining uncertainty around the transition timeline.