**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of any STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from Brazil’s constitutional requirements.** Removal requires Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes), a threshold never met despite numerous past petitions. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has consistently declined to advance filings, including those from a 2026 CPI report targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filing authority to the Prosecutor-General and reinforced the qualified-vote standard. With October 2026 Senate elections unlikely to deliver an immediate supermajority shift before year-end and Lula-aligned legislators providing a reliable blocking coalition, the current institutional and political configuration leaves little room for action in the remaining months. Late-breaking scandals or abrupt changes in Senate leadership remain the main variables that could still alter the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$83,913 Объем
$83,913 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$83,913 Объем
$83,913 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of any STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from Brazil’s constitutional requirements.** Removal requires Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes), a threshold never met despite numerous past petitions. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has consistently declined to advance filings, including those from a 2026 CPI report targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filing authority to the Prosecutor-General and reinforced the qualified-vote standard. With October 2026 Senate elections unlikely to deliver an immediate supermajority shift before year-end and Lula-aligned legislators providing a reliable blocking coalition, the current institutional and political configuration leaves little room for action in the remaining months. Late-breaking scandals or abrupt changes in Senate leadership remain the main variables that could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Объем
$83,913Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of any STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from Brazil’s constitutional requirements.** Removal requires Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes), a threshold never met despite numerous past petitions. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has consistently declined to advance filings, including those from a 2026 CPI report targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filing authority to the Prosecutor-General and reinforced the qualified-vote standard. With October 2026 Senate elections unlikely to deliver an immediate supermajority shift before year-end and Lula-aligned legislators providing a reliable blocking coalition, the current institutional and political configuration leaves little room for action in the remaining months. Late-breaking scandals or abrupt changes in Senate leadership remain the main variables that could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$83,913Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of any STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027 stems primarily from Brazil’s constitutional requirements.** Removal requires Senate acceptance of charges followed by a two-thirds supermajority conviction (54 of 81 votes), a threshold never met despite numerous past petitions. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has consistently declined to advance filings, including those from a 2026 CPI report targeting Justices Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, and Dias Toffoli. Justice Gilmar Mendes’s preliminary rulings have further restricted filing authority to the Prosecutor-General and reinforced the qualified-vote standard. With October 2026 Senate elections unlikely to deliver an immediate supermajority shift before year-end and Lula-aligned legislators providing a reliable blocking coalition, the current institutional and political configuration leaves little room for action in the remaining months. Late-breaking scandals or abrupt changes in Senate leadership remain the main variables that could still alter the trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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