Apple’s decision to pause major Vision Pro development in favor of AI smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment against a full second-generation headset launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from late 2025 and mid-2026 details internal reallocation of engineering resources away from the N100 overhaul, citing the original device’s high price, weight, and limited adoption, while only an M5-chip refresh reached market in October 2025. Multiple analysts, including Ming-Chi Kuo, now project the next substantial Vision Pro iteration no earlier than 2028. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and no credible launch signals or supply-chain indicators, the 94.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this sustained shift. A surprise product announcement or accelerated timeline reversal could still alter outcomes, though current verified developments make such moves improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоApple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Apple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Да
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to pause major Vision Pro development in favor of AI smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment against a full second-generation headset launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from late 2025 and mid-2026 details internal reallocation of engineering resources away from the N100 overhaul, citing the original device’s high price, weight, and limited adoption, while only an M5-chip refresh reached market in October 2025. Multiple analysts, including Ming-Chi Kuo, now project the next substantial Vision Pro iteration no earlier than 2028. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and no credible launch signals or supply-chain indicators, the 94.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this sustained shift. A surprise product announcement or accelerated timeline reversal could still alter outcomes, though current verified developments make such moves improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$5,987Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to pause major Vision Pro development in favor of AI smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment against a full second-generation headset launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from late 2025 and mid-2026 details internal reallocation of engineering resources away from the N100 overhaul, citing the original device’s high price, weight, and limited adoption, while only an M5-chip refresh reached market in October 2025. Multiple analysts, including Ming-Chi Kuo, now project the next substantial Vision Pro iteration no earlier than 2028. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and no credible launch signals or supply-chain indicators, the 94.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this sustained shift. A surprise product announcement or accelerated timeline reversal could still alter outcomes, though current verified developments make such moves improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,987Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to pause major Vision Pro development in favor of AI smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment against a full second-generation headset launch before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from late 2025 and mid-2026 details internal reallocation of engineering resources away from the N100 overhaul, citing the original device’s high price, weight, and limited adoption, while only an M5-chip refresh reached market in October 2025. Multiple analysts, including Ming-Chi Kuo, now project the next substantial Vision Pro iteration no earlier than 2028. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and no credible launch signals or supply-chain indicators, the 94.5% implied probability for “No” reflects this sustained shift. A surprise product announcement or accelerated timeline reversal could still alter outcomes, though current verified developments make such moves improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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