Apple’s decision to deprioritize a full Vision Pro successor after the October 2025 M5 chip refresh drives the 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that modest sales prompted Apple to shelve major headset overhauls in favor of lighter AR smart glasses, with no new spatial computing headsets slated for 2026 and a potential cheaper model now targeted for late 2028 or beyond. visionOS updates continue extending the current platform’s capabilities without new hardware. A sudden strategic pivot, breakthrough in display or optics technology, or revised roadmap could still accelerate timelines, though recent credible signals show little momentum for such a shift before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоApple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Apple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Да
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize a full Vision Pro successor after the October 2025 M5 chip refresh drives the 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that modest sales prompted Apple to shelve major headset overhauls in favor of lighter AR smart glasses, with no new spatial computing headsets slated for 2026 and a potential cheaper model now targeted for late 2028 or beyond. visionOS updates continue extending the current platform’s capabilities without new hardware. A sudden strategic pivot, breakthrough in display or optics technology, or revised roadmap could still accelerate timelines, though recent credible signals show little momentum for such a shift before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$5,998Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize a full Vision Pro successor after the October 2025 M5 chip refresh drives the 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that modest sales prompted Apple to shelve major headset overhauls in favor of lighter AR smart glasses, with no new spatial computing headsets slated for 2026 and a potential cheaper model now targeted for late 2028 or beyond. visionOS updates continue extending the current platform’s capabilities without new hardware. A sudden strategic pivot, breakthrough in display or optics technology, or revised roadmap could still accelerate timelines, though recent credible signals show little momentum for such a shift before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,998Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to deprioritize a full Vision Pro successor after the October 2025 M5 chip refresh drives the 94.5% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that modest sales prompted Apple to shelve major headset overhauls in favor of lighter AR smart glasses, with no new spatial computing headsets slated for 2026 and a potential cheaper model now targeted for late 2028 or beyond. visionOS updates continue extending the current platform’s capabilities without new hardware. A sudden strategic pivot, breakthrough in display or optics technology, or revised roadmap could still accelerate timelines, though recent credible signals show little momentum for such a shift before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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