Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAR-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
AR-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$18,687 Объем
$18,687 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
93%
Демократическая партия
6%
$18,687 Объем
$18,687 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$11,115 Объем
93%
Демократическая партия
$7,571 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$18,687Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$18,687Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% in the AR-01 House race reflects the district's strong R+23 Cook PVI, rural agricultural base in northeast Arkansas, and his unchallenged path through the March 3 Republican primary, securing renomination for an eighth term. Challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist, emerged unopposed from the Democratic primary but trails significantly in early fundraising reports, with Crawford's campaign far outpacing opponents as of mid-April. No public polling shows competitiveness, aligning with historical blowout margins for the GOP in this safe seat. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Crawford scandal, health issue, or massive national Democratic midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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