Skip to main content
icon for AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Политика·Среднесрочный MOV

AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей

icon for AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Политика·Среднесрочный MOV

AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей

Republican 35-40% 50%

Republican 40-45% 49%

Republican 55%+ 33%

Republican 45-50% 33%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Republican 35-40% 50%

Republican 40-45% 49%

Republican 55%+ 33%

Republican 45-50% 33%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
icon for Republican 55%+

Republican 55%+

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Republican 50-55%

Republican 50-55%

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Republican 45-50%

Republican 45-50%

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Republican 40-45%

Republican 40-45%

$0 Объем

49%

icon for Republican 35-40%

Republican 35-40%

$0 Объем

50%

icon for Republican 30-35%

Republican 30-35%

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Republican 25-30%

Republican 25-30%

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Republican 15-25%

Republican 15-25%

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Republican 0-15%

Republican 0-15%

$0 Объем

33%

icon for Democrat Wins

Democrat Wins

$0 Объем

33%

The 2026 AR-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The AR-04 House race shows tight market pricing across margin buckets and candidate matchups because Arkansas's 4th district remains a solidly Republican seat with incumbent Bruce Westerman facing Democrat James Russell, yet traders lack granular polling to pinpoint the exact victory margin. The district's rural conservative base and Westerman's prior strong performances support Republican edges in the 35-45% range, while limited campaign activity, low Democratic infrastructure, and potential national midterm dynamics introduce uncertainty. Upcoming factors that could widen spreads include primary turnout signals, fundraising reports, candidate endorsements, or shifts in voter enthusiasm ahead of the November 2026 general election.

The 2026 AR-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 AR-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 AR-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The AR-04 House race shows tight market pricing across margin buckets and candidate matchups because Arkansas's 4th district remains a solidly Republican seat with incumbent Bruce Westerman facing Democrat James Russell, yet traders lack granular polling to pinpoint the exact victory margin. The district's rural conservative base and Westerman's prior strong performances support Republican edges in the 35-45% range, while limited campaign activity, low Democratic infrastructure, and potential national midterm dynamics introduce uncertainty. Upcoming factors that could widen spreads include primary turnout signals, fundraising reports, candidate endorsements, or shifts in voter enthusiasm ahead of the November 2026 general election.

The 2026 AR-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 AR-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AR-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Связанные

icon for Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу AR-03 в 2026 году с разницей в 40% или более?

Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу AR-03 в 2026 году с разницей в 40% или более?

33%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли кандидат от Республиканской партии выборы в Палату представителей по округу AR-01 в 2026 году с разницей в 30%-35%?

Выиграет ли кандидат от Республиканской партии выборы в Палату представителей по округу AR-01 в 2026 году с разницей в 30%-35%?

50%
Да
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-02 House election by 10%-15%?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-02 House election by 10%-15%?

34%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 10 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Republican 35-40%» с 50%, за ним следует «Republican 40-45%» с 49%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 50¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 50%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 6, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей», просмотри 10 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — «Republican 35-40%» с 50%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 50%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Republican 40-45%» с 49%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «AR-04 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.