Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin in the November 2026 general election. Recent polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8–11 points among likely voters, though one Democratic-sponsored survey in July narrowed the gap to three points before subsequent releases restored double-digit leads. Arkansas’s strong Republican lean, reflected in the 2024 presidential margin, underpins trader expectations of a GOP victory, while the spread across margin buckets highlights uncertainty over turnout, campaign spending, and any late national shifts that could compress or expand the final result. Scheduled events such as debates or additional polling releases before Election Day remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах в Сенат Арканзаса
Маржа победы на выборах в Сенат Арканзаса
Республиканец 10-15% 26.5%
Республиканец 15–20% 23%
Республиканец 5-10% 13%
Республиканец 20-25% 10%
$11,295 Объем
$11,295 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 40%+
5%
Республиканец 35-40%
6%
Республиканец 30-35%
6%
Республиканец 25-30%
8%
Республиканец 20-25%
10%
Республиканец 15–20%
23%
Республиканец 10-15%
26%
Республиканец 5-10%
13%
Республиканец 0-5%
11%
Победа демократа
9%
Республиканец 10-15% 26.5%
Республиканец 15–20% 23%
Республиканец 5-10% 13%
Республиканец 20-25% 10%
$11,295 Объем
$11,295 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец 40%+
$546 Объем
5%
Республиканец 35-40%
$672 Объем
6%
Республиканец 30-35%
$689 Объем
6%
Республиканец 25-30%
$456 Объем
8%
Республиканец 20-25%
$714 Объем
10%
Республиканец 15–20%
$3,624 Объем
23%
Республиканец 10-15%
$2,239 Объем
26%
Республиканец 5-10%
$907 Объем
13%
Республиканец 0-5%
$749 Объем
11%
Победа демократа
$702 Объем
9%
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin in the November 2026 general election. Recent polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8–11 points among likely voters, though one Democratic-sponsored survey in July narrowed the gap to three points before subsequent releases restored double-digit leads. Arkansas’s strong Republican lean, reflected in the 2024 presidential margin, underpins trader expectations of a GOP victory, while the spread across margin buckets highlights uncertainty over turnout, campaign spending, and any late national shifts that could compress or expand the final result. Scheduled events such as debates or additional polling releases before Election Day remain the primary near-term catalysts.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$11,295Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin in the November 2026 general election. Recent polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8–11 points among likely voters, though one Democratic-sponsored survey in July narrowed the gap to three points before subsequent releases restored double-digit leads. Arkansas’s strong Republican lean, reflected in the 2024 presidential margin, underpins trader expectations of a GOP victory, while the spread across margin buckets highlights uncertainty over turnout, campaign spending, and any late national shifts that could compress or expand the final result. Scheduled events such as debates or additional polling releases before Election Day remain the primary near-term catalysts.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$11,295Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton seeks a third term against Democrat Hallie Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin in the November 2026 general election. Recent polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8–11 points among likely voters, though one Democratic-sponsored survey in July narrowed the gap to three points before subsequent releases restored double-digit leads. Arkansas’s strong Republican lean, reflected in the 2024 presidential margin, underpins trader expectations of a GOP victory, while the spread across margin buckets highlights uncertainty over turnout, campaign spending, and any late national shifts that could compress or expand the final result. Scheduled events such as debates or additional polling releases before Election Day remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах губернатора Арканзаса в 2026 году с разницей в 15–20%?
22%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Сенат Алабамы в 2026 году с разницей 5–10%?
23%
Да
Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Сенат Теннесси в 2026 году?
21%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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