Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by May 31—defined as IMF PortWatch seven-day average ship arrivals falling to 10 or fewer—amid Houthi threats in late April that have yet to materialize into attacks disrupting the chokepoint, which handles critical oil and container flows alternative to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade. Sustained U.S. and European naval patrols have maintained transit volumes above threshold levels, as evidenced by March averages near 33 ships, while Hormuz tensions already elevate Brent crude near $106 per barrel and inflate freight rates, with the Baltic Dry Index at 3,189 and World Container Index at $2,286 per FEU from Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Odds rise modestly to 20% by September 30, with upcoming IMF data releases and U.S.-Iran cease-fire developments as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБаб-эль-Мандебский пролив фактически закрыт...?
Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив фактически закрыт...?
$2,810,045 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
31 мая
4%
30 июня
13%
30 сентября
21%
$2,810,045 Объем
31 мая
$797,091 Объем
4%
30 июня
$28,258 Объем
13%
30 сентября
$2,754 Объем
21%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by May 31—defined as IMF PortWatch seven-day average ship arrivals falling to 10 or fewer—amid Houthi threats in late April that have yet to materialize into attacks disrupting the chokepoint, which handles critical oil and container flows alternative to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade. Sustained U.S. and European naval patrols have maintained transit volumes above threshold levels, as evidenced by March averages near 33 ships, while Hormuz tensions already elevate Brent crude near $106 per barrel and inflate freight rates, with the Baltic Dry Index at 3,189 and World Container Index at $2,286 per FEU from Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Odds rise modestly to 20% by September 30, with upcoming IMF data releases and U.S.-Iran cease-fire developments as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Объем
$2,810,045Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by May 31—defined as IMF PortWatch seven-day average ship arrivals falling to 10 or fewer—amid Houthi threats in late April that have yet to materialize into attacks disrupting the chokepoint, which handles critical oil and container flows alternative to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade. Sustained U.S. and European naval patrols have maintained transit volumes above threshold levels, as evidenced by March averages near 33 ships, while Hormuz tensions already elevate Brent crude near $106 per barrel and inflate freight rates, with the Baltic Dry Index at 3,189 and World Container Index at $2,286 per FEU from Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Odds rise modestly to 20% by September 30, with upcoming IMF data releases and U.S.-Iran cease-fire developments as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$2,810,045Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% implied probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closing by May 31—defined as IMF PortWatch seven-day average ship arrivals falling to 10 or fewer—amid Houthi threats in late April that have yet to materialize into attacks disrupting the chokepoint, which handles critical oil and container flows alternative to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade. Sustained U.S. and European naval patrols have maintained transit volumes above threshold levels, as evidenced by March averages near 33 ships, while Hormuz tensions already elevate Brent crude near $106 per barrel and inflate freight rates, with the Baltic Dry Index at 3,189 and World Container Index at $2,286 per FEU from Cape of Good Hope rerouting. Odds rise modestly to 20% by September 30, with upcoming IMF data releases and U.S.-Iran cease-fire developments as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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