Recent easing in Canadian CPI inflation to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% the prior month, alongside signs of broadening economic improvement, has anchored trader expectations for the Bank of Canada to hold its 2.25% policy rate at the October 28 decision. The central bank has maintained this level through six consecutive meetings amid temporary energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions, with core measures also trending lower. Forward markets and analyst forecasts price a high probability of stability through fall 2026, reflecting balanced risks between subdued growth and contained inflation. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 2 announcement, July CPI release, and the October Monetary Policy Report, which could shift implied odds if data deviates from the base case of gradual convergence toward the 2% target.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 88.9%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 6.8%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 5.7%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$38,975 Объем
$38,975 Объем
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
7%
Без изменений
89%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 88.9%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 6.8%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 5.7%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$38,975 Объем
$38,975 Объем
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
7%
Без изменений
89%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent easing in Canadian CPI inflation to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% the prior month, alongside signs of broadening economic improvement, has anchored trader expectations for the Bank of Canada to hold its 2.25% policy rate at the October 28 decision. The central bank has maintained this level through six consecutive meetings amid temporary energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions, with core measures also trending lower. Forward markets and analyst forecasts price a high probability of stability through fall 2026, reflecting balanced risks between subdued growth and contained inflation. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 2 announcement, July CPI release, and the October Monetary Policy Report, which could shift implied odds if data deviates from the base case of gradual convergence toward the 2% target.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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