Ongoing geopolitical tensions with Iran and elevated uncertainty over energy prices and inflation expectations have anchored trader consensus around no change at the Bank of Israel’s July monetary policy meeting. After two 25-basis-point cuts earlier in the year brought the benchmark to 4 percent, the Monetary Committee held rates steady in March amid rising global oil costs and moderate shekel movements, with inflation remaining near the 2 percent midpoint of the 1–3 percent target range. Stable 2026 growth and inflation forecasts, combined with the central bank’s cautious stance on further easing until clearer signals emerge, position a hold as the dominant outcome while leaving room for a modest cut if April or May data show sustained disinflation. An increase remains a low-probability tail event absent major escalation.