Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot by 5 to 10 points in recent national surveys, reflecting low presidential approval ratings amid economic concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict. This environment has produced strong Democratic overperformance in special elections and an unusually high number of Republican retirements, boosting expectations for House gains. However, aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the map, limiting the scale of potential Democratic seat flips despite historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Traders assign the higher probability to "No" on a blue tsunami—defined as simultaneous large majorities in both chambers—because these structural barriers make a wave on the scale of 2006 or 2018 less certain even as control of the House remains competitive ahead of November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$28,656 Объем
$28,656 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$28,656 Объем
$28,656 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfDemocrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot by 5 to 10 points in recent national surveys, reflecting low presidential approval ratings amid economic concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict. This environment has produced strong Democratic overperformance in special elections and an unusually high number of Republican retirements, boosting expectations for House gains. However, aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the map, limiting the scale of potential Democratic seat flips despite historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Traders assign the higher probability to "No" on a blue tsunami—defined as simultaneous large majorities in both chambers—because these structural barriers make a wave on the scale of 2006 or 2018 less certain even as control of the House remains competitive ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$28,656Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfDemocrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot by 5 to 10 points in recent national surveys, reflecting low presidential approval ratings amid economic concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict. This environment has produced strong Democratic overperformance in special elections and an unusually high number of Republican retirements, boosting expectations for House gains. However, aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the map, limiting the scale of potential Democratic seat flips despite historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Traders assign the higher probability to "No" on a blue tsunami—defined as simultaneous large majorities in both chambers—because these structural barriers make a wave on the scale of 2006 or 2018 less certain even as control of the House remains competitive ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Объем
$28,656Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats currently lead the generic congressional ballot by 5 to 10 points in recent national surveys, reflecting low presidential approval ratings amid economic concerns and the ongoing Iran conflict. This environment has produced strong Democratic overperformance in special elections and an unusually high number of Republican retirements, boosting expectations for House gains. However, aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the map, limiting the scale of potential Democratic seat flips despite historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party. Traders assign the higher probability to "No" on a blue tsunami—defined as simultaneous large majorities in both chambers—because these structural barriers make a wave on the scale of 2006 or 2018 less certain even as control of the House remains competitive ahead of November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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