Recent upward revisions to 2026 IPCA forecasts, fueled by elevated oil prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have concentrated trader consensus in the 5.00-5.99% range, where the two leading bins hold a combined 50% share of market-implied odds. Analyst surveys, including the Banco Central do Brasil Focus poll, now cluster near 4.9-5.3% after successive weekly increases tied to fuel and food-at-home components, while the central bank’s own March 2026 projection remains lower at 3.9%. This narrow spread reflects uncertainty over the persistence of the oil shock versus potential moderation in services inflation and labor-market cooling. Key swing factors include the June 2026 IPCA release and upcoming Copom decisions on the Selic rate path, which could shift expectations if core measures diverge from headline prints.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5,00–5,49% 27.3%
4,50–4,99% 23.9%
5,50–5,99% 22.8%
4,00–4,49% 8.2%
$57,305 Объем
$57,305 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
6%
3,50–3,99%
2%
4,00–4,49%
8%
4,50–4,99%
19%
5,00–5,49%
28%
5,50–5,99%
23%
6,00–6,49%
4%
6,50–6,99%
5%
7,00%+
11%
5,00–5,49% 27.3%
4,50–4,99% 23.9%
5,50–5,99% 22.8%
4,00–4,49% 8.2%
$57,305 Объем
$57,305 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
$4,310 Объем
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,370 Объем
6%
3,50–3,99%
$8,996 Объем
2%
4,00–4,49%
$7,722 Объем
8%
4,50–4,99%
$7,022 Объем
19%
5,00–5,49%
$6,105 Объем
28%
5,50–5,99%
$5,695 Объем
23%
6,00–6,49%
$4,670 Объем
4%
6,50–6,99%
$4,858 Объем
5%
7,00%+
$3,556 Объем
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent upward revisions to 2026 IPCA forecasts, fueled by elevated oil prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have concentrated trader consensus in the 5.00-5.99% range, where the two leading bins hold a combined 50% share of market-implied odds. Analyst surveys, including the Banco Central do Brasil Focus poll, now cluster near 4.9-5.3% after successive weekly increases tied to fuel and food-at-home components, while the central bank’s own March 2026 projection remains lower at 3.9%. This narrow spread reflects uncertainty over the persistence of the oil shock versus potential moderation in services inflation and labor-market cooling. Key swing factors include the June 2026 IPCA release and upcoming Copom decisions on the Selic rate path, which could shift expectations if core measures diverge from headline prints.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Объем
$57,305Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent upward revisions to 2026 IPCA forecasts, fueled by elevated oil prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have concentrated trader consensus in the 5.00-5.99% range, where the two leading bins hold a combined 50% share of market-implied odds. Analyst surveys, including the Banco Central do Brasil Focus poll, now cluster near 4.9-5.3% after successive weekly increases tied to fuel and food-at-home components, while the central bank’s own March 2026 projection remains lower at 3.9%. This narrow spread reflects uncertainty over the persistence of the oil shock versus potential moderation in services inflation and labor-market cooling. Key swing factors include the June 2026 IPCA release and upcoming Copom decisions on the Selic rate path, which could shift expectations if core measures diverge from headline prints.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$57,305Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions to 2026 IPCA forecasts, fueled by elevated oil prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have concentrated trader consensus in the 5.00-5.99% range, where the two leading bins hold a combined 50% share of market-implied odds. Analyst surveys, including the Banco Central do Brasil Focus poll, now cluster near 4.9-5.3% after successive weekly increases tied to fuel and food-at-home components, while the central bank’s own March 2026 projection remains lower at 3.9%. This narrow spread reflects uncertainty over the persistence of the oil shock versus potential moderation in services inflation and labor-market cooling. Key swing factors include the June 2026 IPCA release and upcoming Copom decisions on the Selic rate path, which could shift expectations if core measures diverge from headline prints.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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