**Turnout in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential election settled at 78.92 percent, with abstention reaching 21.08 percent—the highest since 1998—according to Superior Electoral Court figures.** This placed the result squarely inside the 78-80 percent range that dominates trader pricing. Expectations were anchored by the 2022 first-round turnout of roughly 79 percent and a long-term rise in abstention driven by an aging electorate (voting becomes optional after 70) and steady polarization that discourages some participation even under compulsory voting rules. Pre-election analyses anticipated participation near or slightly below prior cycles, with limited upside from last-minute mobilization. A sharp drop below 78 percent would have required unusually high abstention from core voter blocs or major logistical disruptions, while a surge above 80 percent would have needed unexpectedly strong turnout in high-abstention states such as Rio de Janeiro or Minas Gerais. The final count aligned closely with baseline historical patterns.