Mike Thompson holds a strong position in the CA-04 general election as the longtime Democratic incumbent seeking a 15th term, benefiting from party endorsements, established constituent relationships across the redrawn district, and consistent leads in primary vote shares. Eric Jones advanced as the top-two challenger in the June 2026 primary with 22% of the vote after a late surge, backed by progressive groups and significant self-funding, though trailing Thompson by a wide margin. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic following the Prop. 50 redistricting that incorporated more rural areas, limiting Republican prospects and reinforcing the intraparty contest's dynamics heading into November. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages for the incumbent alongside the challenger's campaign visibility in recent months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (индивидуально)
CA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (индивидуально)
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Майк Томпсон
71%
Эрик Джонс
27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 нояб. 2026 г.
Майк Томпсон
$6,747 Объем
71%
Эрик Джонс
$2,218 Объем
27%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson holds a strong position in the CA-04 general election as the longtime Democratic incumbent seeking a 15th term, benefiting from party endorsements, established constituent relationships across the redrawn district, and consistent leads in primary vote shares. Eric Jones advanced as the top-two challenger in the June 2026 primary with 22% of the vote after a late surge, backed by progressive groups and significant self-funding, though trailing Thompson by a wide margin. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic following the Prop. 50 redistricting that incorporated more rural areas, limiting Republican prospects and reinforcing the intraparty contest's dynamics heading into November. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages for the incumbent alongside the challenger's campaign visibility in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Объем
$8,965Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Thompson holds a strong position in the CA-04 general election as the longtime Democratic incumbent seeking a 15th term, benefiting from party endorsements, established constituent relationships across the redrawn district, and consistent leads in primary vote shares. Eric Jones advanced as the top-two challenger in the June 2026 primary with 22% of the vote after a late surge, backed by progressive groups and significant self-funding, though trailing Thompson by a wide margin. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic following the Prop. 50 redistricting that incorporated more rural areas, limiting Republican prospects and reinforcing the intraparty contest's dynamics heading into November. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages for the incumbent alongside the challenger's campaign visibility in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$8,965Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Mike Thompson holds a strong position in the CA-04 general election as the longtime Democratic incumbent seeking a 15th term, benefiting from party endorsements, established constituent relationships across the redrawn district, and consistent leads in primary vote shares. Eric Jones advanced as the top-two challenger in the June 2026 primary with 22% of the vote after a late surge, backed by progressive groups and significant self-funding, though trailing Thompson by a wide margin. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic following the Prop. 50 redistricting that incorporated more rural areas, limiting Republican prospects and reinforcing the intraparty contest's dynamics heading into November. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages for the incumbent alongside the challenger's campaign visibility in recent months.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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