Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 House race because she secured the Democratic nomination in both the June primaries and then defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in the August 18 special election to finish Eric Swalwell’s unexpired term. As the newly seated incumbent in a heavily Democratic East Bay district, Wahab benefits from higher name recognition, prior statewide legislative experience, and the structural advantage of facing the same challenger in the November 3 general. Hernandez received substantial outside spending, including from pro-Israel groups, during the special but still fell short; that funding has not yet shifted the November matchup enough to close the gap in trader assessments. The race remains a top-two contest in a safe Democratic seat, with no other candidates positioned to alter the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
CA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
$20,664 Объем
$20,664 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Айша Вахаб
84%
Мелисса Эрнандес
15%
$20,664 Объем
$20,664 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Айша Вахаб
$12,530 Объем
84%
Мелисса Эрнандес
$8,133 Объем
15%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 House race because she secured the Democratic nomination in both the June primaries and then defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in the August 18 special election to finish Eric Swalwell’s unexpired term. As the newly seated incumbent in a heavily Democratic East Bay district, Wahab benefits from higher name recognition, prior statewide legislative experience, and the structural advantage of facing the same challenger in the November 3 general. Hernandez received substantial outside spending, including from pro-Israel groups, during the special but still fell short; that funding has not yet shifted the November matchup enough to close the gap in trader assessments. The race remains a top-two contest in a safe Democratic seat, with no other candidates positioned to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Объем
$20,664Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 House race because she secured the Democratic nomination in both the June primaries and then defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in the August 18 special election to finish Eric Swalwell’s unexpired term. As the newly seated incumbent in a heavily Democratic East Bay district, Wahab benefits from higher name recognition, prior statewide legislative experience, and the structural advantage of facing the same challenger in the November 3 general. Hernandez received substantial outside spending, including from pro-Israel groups, during the special but still fell short; that funding has not yet shifted the November matchup enough to close the gap in trader assessments. The race remains a top-two contest in a safe Democratic seat, with no other candidates positioned to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$20,664Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 83.5% implied probability in the CA-14 House race because she secured the Democratic nomination in both the June primaries and then defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in the August 18 special election to finish Eric Swalwell’s unexpired term. As the newly seated incumbent in a heavily Democratic East Bay district, Wahab benefits from higher name recognition, prior statewide legislative experience, and the structural advantage of facing the same challenger in the November 3 general. Hernandez received substantial outside spending, including from pro-Israel groups, during the special but still fell short; that funding has not yet shifted the November matchup enough to close the gap in trader assessments. The race remains a top-two contest in a safe Democratic seat, with no other candidates positioned to alter the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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