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icon for CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Политика·Среднесрочный MOV

CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей

icon for CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Политика·Среднесрочный MOV

CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей

Демократ 15-20% 43%

Демократ 5-10% 43%

Демократ 10–15% 39%

Демократ 25–30% 38%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Демократ 15-20% 43%

Демократ 5-10% 43%

Демократ 10–15% 39%

Демократ 25–30% 38%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
icon for Демократ 30%+

Демократ 30%+

$0 Объем

31%

icon for Демократ 25–30%

Демократ 25–30%

$0 Объем

38%

icon for Демократ 20-25%

Демократ 20-25%

$0 Объем

36%

icon for Демократ 15-20%

Демократ 15-20%

$0 Объем

43%

icon for Демократ 10–15%

Демократ 10–15%

$0 Объем

39%

icon for Демократ 5-10%

Демократ 5-10%

$0 Объем

43%

icon for Демократ 0-5%

Демократ 0-5%

$0 Объем

38%

icon for Победа республиканца

Победа республиканца

$0 Объем

13%

The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest the November general election in the redrawn CA-42 district.** Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the Long Beach-anchored seat rightward by incorporating more Republican-leaning Orange County communities such as Huntington Beach, narrowing the Democratic edge from prior cycles while preserving an overall partisan lean. Garcia maintains a substantial fundraising advantage and incumbency, yet the adjusted boundaries have produced market pricing that clusters around modest Democratic margins of victory alongside a low but non-zero probability for a Republican win. Key variables that could widen or close the gap include relative turnout between Democratic strongholds and newly added GOP areas, any late-cycle national political shifts, and the effectiveness of Burley’s campaign in mobilizing conservative voters.

The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest the November general election in the redrawn CA-42 district.** Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the Long Beach-anchored seat rightward by incorporating more Republican-leaning Orange County communities such as Huntington Beach, narrowing the Democratic edge from prior cycles while preserving an overall partisan lean. Garcia maintains a substantial fundraising advantage and incumbency, yet the adjusted boundaries have produced market pricing that clusters around modest Democratic margins of victory alongside a low but non-zero probability for a Republican win. Key variables that could widen or close the gap include relative turnout between Democratic strongholds and newly added GOP areas, any late-cycle national political shifts, and the effectiveness of Burley’s campaign in mobilizing conservative voters.

The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-42 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-42 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Связанные

icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-43 в 2026 году с результатом от 50% до 55%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-43 в 2026 году с результатом от 50% до 55%?

41%
Да
icon for Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу Калифорнии №41 в 2026 году?

Победит ли кандидат от Республиканской партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу Калифорнии №41 в 2026 году?

40%
Да
icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-44 в 2026 году с разницей в 35-40%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Палату представителей по округу CA-44 в 2026 году с разницей в 35-40%?

42%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 8 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Демократ 15-20%» с 44%, за ним следует «Демократ 5-10%» с 43%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 44¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 44%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 2, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей», просмотри 8 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» — «Демократ 15-20%» с 44%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 44%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Демократ 5-10%» с 43%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-42 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.