Becerra secured the top spot in California's June 2 top-two primary with roughly 28% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Steve Hilton at about 25% amid a crowded field that included Tom Steyer near 23%. Vote splitting among multiple Democratic contenders, including Katie Porter and others, combined with Republican consolidation around Hilton following a Trump endorsement, produced the narrow margin. Late polling shifts favoring Becerra's name recognition and prior statewide roles as attorney general and HHS secretary reinforced trader consensus on a sub-5% outcome. Full certification could still adjust exact percentages slightly, while any successful legal challenges to ballots would represent the main variables capable of altering the current implied probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБесерра <5% 96%
Бесерра 5–10% 3.0%
Бесерра 10%+ 2.6%
Победа Хилтона 1.0%
$31,287 Объем
$31,287 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Бесерра 10%+
3%
Бесерра 5–10%
3%
Бесерра <5%
96%
Стайер больше 5%
<1%
Стейер <5%
<1%
Победа Хилтона
1%
Победа Бьянко
<1%
Бесерра <5% 96%
Бесерра 5–10% 3.0%
Бесерра 10%+ 2.6%
Победа Хилтона 1.0%
$31,287 Объем
$31,287 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Бесерра 10%+
$6,413 Объем
3%
Бесерра 5–10%
$12,571 Объем
3%
Бесерра <5%
$5,270 Объем
96%
Стайер больше 5%
$1,486 Объем
<1%
Стейер <5%
$2,028 Объем
<1%
Победа Хилтона
$2,867 Объем
1%
Победа Бьянко
$673 Объем
<1%
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Becerra secured the top spot in California's June 2 top-two primary with roughly 28% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Steve Hilton at about 25% amid a crowded field that included Tom Steyer near 23%. Vote splitting among multiple Democratic contenders, including Katie Porter and others, combined with Republican consolidation around Hilton following a Trump endorsement, produced the narrow margin. Late polling shifts favoring Becerra's name recognition and prior statewide roles as attorney general and HHS secretary reinforced trader consensus on a sub-5% outcome. Full certification could still adjust exact percentages slightly, while any successful legal challenges to ballots would represent the main variables capable of altering the current implied probability.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: May 28, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Объем
$31,287Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 28, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Becerra secured the top spot in California's June 2 top-two primary with roughly 28% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Steve Hilton at about 25% amid a crowded field that included Tom Steyer near 23%. Vote splitting among multiple Democratic contenders, including Katie Porter and others, combined with Republican consolidation around Hilton following a Trump endorsement, produced the narrow margin. Late polling shifts favoring Becerra's name recognition and prior statewide roles as attorney general and HHS secretary reinforced trader consensus on a sub-5% outcome. Full certification could still adjust exact percentages slightly, while any successful legal challenges to ballots would represent the main variables capable of altering the current implied probability.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$31,287Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 28, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Becerra secured the top spot in California's June 2 top-two primary with roughly 28% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Steve Hilton at about 25% amid a crowded field that included Tom Steyer near 23%. Vote splitting among multiple Democratic contenders, including Katie Porter and others, combined with Republican consolidation around Hilton following a Trump endorsement, produced the narrow margin. Late polling shifts favoring Becerra's name recognition and prior statewide roles as attorney general and HHS secretary reinforced trader consensus on a sub-5% outcome. Full certification could still adjust exact percentages slightly, while any successful legal challenges to ballots would represent the main variables capable of altering the current implied probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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