Trader consensus on the California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative reflects a 61% implied probability of failure, driven by recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies polls showing support dropping from 56% for general voter ID concepts to 39-44% for the specific measure once voters receive balanced information on its GOP sponsorship, fraud-combating aims, and potential suppression risks. Democratic leaders, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and voting rights groups like the ACLU have launched opposition campaigns emphasizing rare voter fraud and barriers for low-income, disabled, and mail-in voters, while the state's supermajority blue electorate and historical resistance to election overhauls reinforce skepticism despite the initiative's April 24 qualification via 962,000+ valid signatures. The November 3 general election, coinciding with the governor's race, heightens partisan turnout dynamics as key factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРеферендум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Референдум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.Trader consensus on the California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative reflects a 61% implied probability of failure, driven by recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies polls showing support dropping from 56% for general voter ID concepts to 39-44% for the specific measure once voters receive balanced information on its GOP sponsorship, fraud-combating aims, and potential suppression risks. Democratic leaders, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and voting rights groups like the ACLU have launched opposition campaigns emphasizing rare voter fraud and barriers for low-income, disabled, and mail-in voters, while the state's supermajority blue electorate and historical resistance to election overhauls reinforce skepticism despite the initiative's April 24 qualification via 962,000+ valid signatures. The November 3 general election, coinciding with the governor's race, heightens partisan turnout dynamics as key factors.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$8,091Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.Trader consensus on the California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative reflects a 61% implied probability of failure, driven by recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies polls showing support dropping from 56% for general voter ID concepts to 39-44% for the specific measure once voters receive balanced information on its GOP sponsorship, fraud-combating aims, and potential suppression risks. Democratic leaders, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and voting rights groups like the ACLU have launched opposition campaigns emphasizing rare voter fraud and barriers for low-income, disabled, and mail-in voters, while the state's supermajority blue electorate and historical resistance to election overhauls reinforce skepticism despite the initiative's April 24 qualification via 962,000+ valid signatures. The November 3 general election, coinciding with the governor's race, heightens partisan turnout dynamics as key factors.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Объем
$8,091Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the California Voter Identification, Citizenship Verification, and Registered Voter List Administration Initiative reflects a 61% implied probability of failure, driven by recent UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies polls showing support dropping from 56% for general voter ID concepts to 39-44% for the specific measure once voters receive balanced information on its GOP sponsorship, fraud-combating aims, and potential suppression risks. Democratic leaders, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and voting rights groups like the ACLU have launched opposition campaigns emphasizing rare voter fraud and barriers for low-income, disabled, and mail-in voters, while the state's supermajority blue electorate and historical resistance to election overhauls reinforce skepticism despite the initiative's April 24 qualification via 962,000+ valid signatures. The November 3 general election, coinciding with the governor's race, heightens partisan turnout dynamics as key factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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