California's deep Democratic voter base and organized opposition from civil rights groups have shaped trader expectations that Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, will fail. The measure, which qualified after proponents submitted over 1.3 million signatures in April, would require government-issued ID for in-person voting or the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while expanding citizenship verification. Voting rights organizations launched campaigns against it shortly after qualification, highlighting barriers for mail voters who comprise the majority of California ballots. Recent disputes over the official ballot title have added procedural friction but not altered the underlying partisan dynamics ahead of the general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРеферендум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Референдум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Да
42% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
42% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California's deep Democratic voter base and organized opposition from civil rights groups have shaped trader expectations that Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, will fail. The measure, which qualified after proponents submitted over 1.3 million signatures in April, would require government-issued ID for in-person voting or the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while expanding citizenship verification. Voting rights organizations launched campaigns against it shortly after qualification, highlighting barriers for mail voters who comprise the majority of California ballots. Recent disputes over the official ballot title have added procedural friction but not altered the underlying partisan dynamics ahead of the general election.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$8,490Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.California's deep Democratic voter base and organized opposition from civil rights groups have shaped trader expectations that Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, will fail. The measure, which qualified after proponents submitted over 1.3 million signatures in April, would require government-issued ID for in-person voting or the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while expanding citizenship verification. Voting rights organizations launched campaigns against it shortly after qualification, highlighting barriers for mail voters who comprise the majority of California ballots. Recent disputes over the official ballot title have added procedural friction but not altered the underlying partisan dynamics ahead of the general election.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Объем
$8,490Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California's deep Democratic voter base and organized opposition from civil rights groups have shaped trader expectations that Proposition 39, the voter ID constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot, will fail. The measure, which qualified after proponents submitted over 1.3 million signatures in April, would require government-issued ID for in-person voting or the last four digits of such ID for mail ballots while expanding citizenship verification. Voting rights organizations launched campaigns against it shortly after qualification, highlighting barriers for mail voters who comprise the majority of California ballots. Recent disputes over the official ballot title have added procedural friction but not altered the underlying partisan dynamics ahead of the general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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