California voters face the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act alongside two opposing ballot measures on the November ballot, including the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act that would block new personal property taxes and limit retroactive levies, with the highest-vote measure prevailing in direct conflicts. Opposition funding from billionaires, business groups, and organizations such as the California Teachers Association has intensified campaign spending against the wealth tax, while Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly rejected the proposal and related compromises. Polling from May showed modest support near 54 percent amid concerns over resident outflows and state revenue effects, with no major shifts reported since qualification in June. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring the opposing propositions' relative strength in a multi-measure contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКалифорнийский налог на богатство опровергает противоположные предложения?
Калифорнийский налог на богатство опровергает противоположные предложения?
Да
34% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
34% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act alongside two opposing ballot measures on the November ballot, including the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act that would block new personal property taxes and limit retroactive levies, with the highest-vote measure prevailing in direct conflicts. Opposition funding from billionaires, business groups, and organizations such as the California Teachers Association has intensified campaign spending against the wealth tax, while Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly rejected the proposal and related compromises. Polling from May showed modest support near 54 percent amid concerns over resident outflows and state revenue effects, with no major shifts reported since qualification in June. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring the opposing propositions' relative strength in a multi-measure contest.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Объем
$303Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act alongside two opposing ballot measures on the November ballot, including the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act that would block new personal property taxes and limit retroactive levies, with the highest-vote measure prevailing in direct conflicts. Opposition funding from billionaires, business groups, and organizations such as the California Teachers Association has intensified campaign spending against the wealth tax, while Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly rejected the proposal and related compromises. Polling from May showed modest support near 54 percent amid concerns over resident outflows and state revenue effects, with no major shifts reported since qualification in June. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring the opposing propositions' relative strength in a multi-measure contest.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.
Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.
If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.
If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.
If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.
If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Объем
$303Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...California voters face the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act alongside two opposing ballot measures on the November ballot, including the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act that would block new personal property taxes and limit retroactive levies, with the highest-vote measure prevailing in direct conflicts. Opposition funding from billionaires, business groups, and organizations such as the California Teachers Association has intensified campaign spending against the wealth tax, while Governor Gavin Newsom has publicly rejected the proposal and related compromises. Polling from May showed modest support near 54 percent amid concerns over resident outflows and state revenue effects, with no major shifts reported since qualification in June. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring the opposing propositions' relative strength in a multi-measure contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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